India imported a record 4.93 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, the highest volume for the month on record, despite heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to data and analysis from energy intelligence firm Kpler.
Russian crude dominance
Russian crude imports rose to around 2.6 million bpd during the month, reinforcing Russia's position as India's largest oil supplier, Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia said. Russian supplies made up for more than half of the country's overall imports in June, up from 36.5% in May when India had imported 2.13 million bpd from Moscow, according to Kpler data.
| Month | Russian crude imports (bpd) | Share of total imports |
|---|---|---|
| May | 2.13 million | 36.5% |
| June | ~2.6 million | >50% |
Russia has been India's largest crude supplier since 2022-23, as Indian refiners increased purchases of discounted Russian oil after many European buyers reduced imports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the data showed.
Resilience amid geopolitical risks
The record import volumes underscore India's ability to maintain crude supplies through diversified sourcing even as conflict in West Asia raised concerns over global energy shipments and briefly pushed up oil prices. "India's crude imports have quietly demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past 100 days. Over the past 100 days, India has arguably been one of the best-positioned major importers, successfully maintaining crude inflows through proactive diversification and procurement strategies," Ritolia said.
Indian refiners have largely secured crude supplies through the first half of August, as cargoes are typically booked one to two months in advance, Ritolia noted. That leaves refiners with limited immediate need for additional purchases even if geopolitical risks persist.
Supply outlook and diversification
Looking ahead, global crude supplies are expected to remain adequate, supported by higher exports from Africa, Russia and Venezuela, increased output by OPEC+ producers and the continued movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, Ritolia said. The recent decline in international crude prices also suggests the market is becoming less concerned about near-term supply disruptions.
On potential Iranian crude imports, Ritolia said he does not expect a meaningful resumption in the near term. While one or two opportunistic cargoes could arrive in July or August, refiners are already largely covered for feedstock requirements through early August. Any sustained return of Iranian crude would depend on the regulatory environment after the current sanctions waiver expires on August 21, he added.
India's import strategy
India, the world's third-largest importer and consumer of crude oil, meets more than 88% of its oil requirement through imports and has sharply increased purchases of discounted Russian crude since 2022. "Looking ahead, India's crude import position also appears comfortable. Refiners typically procure crude cargoes one to two months in advance, implying that feedstock requirements through August are largely secured. Beyond that, the global supply outlook remains supportive," Ritolia said. Rising exports from Africa, Russia, and Venezuela, together with higher OPEC+ production and continued crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, should provide ample sourcing options. The recent decline in crude prices also suggests that the market is increasingly comfortable with supply availability despite lingering geopolitical risks.
"Overall, India's crude import portfolio remains well diversified, well balanced, and adequately covered. Unless there is a material disruption to global physical supplies, Indian refiners are well positioned to meet crude requirements while continuing to optimize their refinery economics," Ritolia concluded.
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