India’s crude oil imports from Russia may touch a new record of 3 million barrels per day if shipment disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea continue, according to a Kpler analysis. The global real-time data and analytics provider said that India’s reliance on Russian crude oil remains very high.
Red Sea disruptions and supply cushion
If shipping through the Red Sea remains unaffected, Indian refiners will continue to have an important supply cushion through Saudi Arabia's East-West (Yanbu) pipeline, which has recently been supplying around 300,000-500,000 barrels per day (kbd) of crude, Kpler reported. However, if the security situation worsens and Red Sea supplies are disrupted during August, refiners will have to replace those volumes with crude sourced from elsewhere. The most likely replacement remains Russian crude, said Sumit Ritolia, Lead analyst, Modelling and Refining at Kpler.
Rising Russian crude imports
Over the past few months, India's Russian crude imports have increased sharply from around 1.0 mbd to approximately 2.6 mbd, with July imports also tracking near record highs, according to Ritolia. In the event of supply disruptions, Indian refiners are likely to step up purchases of Russian crude and spot West African (WAF) cargoes, wherever available, while also drawing down commercial crude inventories to meet short-term supply requirements.
India's crude sourcing has become significantly more diversified in recent years, with higher imports from Russia, Venezuela, Africa and suppliers in the Atlantic Basin. This broader import basket provides greater flexibility and lowers the risk of any major supply disruption, Kpler noted.
Dependence on Russian crude
According to Kpler, India's reliance on Russian crude remains exceptionally strong. July imports are running at around 2.6 mbd, accounting for roughly 55% of total crude imports. This has fundamentally shifted India's energy security priorities, Ritolia said. While the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea remain strategically important, the uninterrupted operation of Russian export infrastructure—particularly Black Sea terminals such as Novorossiysk—has become equally, if not more, critical for India's crude supply.
"Russian crude remains India's strongest supply hedge, and imports could potentially rise toward or even above 3.0 mbd if market conditions and Russian export availability permit," said Sumit Ritolia, Lead analyst, Modelling and Refining at Kpler.
Saudi Arabia and other suppliers
Saudi Arabia continues to be a key supplier, but its crude exports to India have averaged only about 400,000 barrels per day (kbd) in recent months, far below the volumes imported from Russia. As a result, any disruption to Saudi crude shipments through the Red Sea would likely have a much smaller impact on India's overall oil supply than a prolonged interruption to Russian exports from the Black Sea, said Ritolia.
The table below compares current import levels and potential impact:
| Supplier | Current imports (kbd) | Share of India's imports | Key risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | ~2,600 | ~55% | Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure; July exports down 400 kbd |
| Saudi Arabia | ~400 | ~8% | Red Sea disruption; can be partly rerouted via East-West pipeline |
| Others | ~1,000 | ~27% | West African cargoes available spot |
Outlook and key uncertainties
A disruption to Red Sea shipments would tighten the supply situation but is unlikely to trigger a critical shortage, according to Kpler. Russian crude remains India's most effective supply hedge, and imports could potentially increase to around or even above 3.0 million barrels per day, provided market conditions remain favourable and Russia has sufficient export availability.
The key uncertainty is whether Russia can continue supplying higher export volumes, given the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on parts of its upstream and downstream energy infrastructure. Russian crude exports in July were about 400,000 barrels per day lower compared with the previous month.
Unlike Red Sea shipments, where cargoes can in some cases be rerouted through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the SUMED pipeline, the Suez Canal or around Africa, alternatives for crude exported through the Black Sea are far more limited. Novorossiysk serves as a crucial export hub not only for Russian Urals crude bound for India but also for CPC crude from Kazakhstan destined for Europe. Any extended disruption at this terminal could tighten global crude supplies, alter trade flows and directly affect India's crude supply security.
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