India was the “most active” buyer for long-term contracts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the 2025 calendar year, contracting 8.4 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) capacity, according to the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL).
Record LNG Contracting Activity in 2025
GIIGNL’s 2026 annual report pointed out that 2025 was an exceptionally active year for LNG contracting, with 83 long-term sale purchase agreements (SPAs) signed, nearly double the 47 recorded in 2024. Disclosed volumes reached 71.6 mtpa across 76 agreements, a roughly 30% increase over the previous year. The report noted that demand growth, portfolio management, and strategic procurement shaped the buyer landscape.
India’s Coordinated Expansion
“India was the most active end-user buyer, with 8.4 mtpa disclosed across six entities, including Indian Oil Corporation (4.7 mtpa), GAIL (1 mtpa), Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (1 mtpa), Torrent Power (0.69 mtpa), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (0.5 mtpa), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (undisclosed), reflecting a coordinated expansion of long-term import capacity driven by rising domestic gas demand,” the international group of LNG importers said.
GIIGNL added that short-term SPA activity also rose from 7 to 13, while Heads of Agreement (HOA) activity declined from 21 to 12. This surge reflects the convergence of two structural forces—sustained demand growth across key importing markets, and an ongoing wave of liquefaction projects seeking offtake commitments to reach final investment decision (FID).
West Asia Conflict and Supply Risks
The GIIGNL report highlighted that an attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefaction terminal and one of the two trains of the Pearl Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) plant could lead to a wider market impact. “Ras Laffan is the backbone of Qatar’s gas export system, and the confirmed LNG capacity loss is already significant. However, the wider market impact could be greater because Pearl GTL is integrated into the same gas and industrial network,” it added.
The key risk is not just damage at Ras Laffan, but also Qatar LNG’s reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20% of global LNG flows coming from Qatar and the UAE. “Asia received 82% of those volumes, and exposure is especially high in India (59% of LNG supply came from Qatar and UAE in 2025), China (31%), Taiwan (34%) and South Korea (15%), while Europe’s direct supply exposure is much lower at around 7%,” it said.
| Country/Region | % of LNG Supply from Qatar & UAE (2025) |
|---|---|
| India | 59% |
| China | 31% |
| Taiwan | 34% |
| South Korea | 15% |
| Europe | ~7% |
GIIGNL pointed out that any Ras Laffan outage or shipping restriction through Hormuz may hit Asian balances first, even though some European buyers remain contractually exposed. “Short-term replacement options remain limited: alternative Atlantic and Pacific basin supply can only partly offset missing Qatar cargoes, and many Asian markets are already highly contracted and operationally exposed. The supply consequences are material in all disruption scenarios.”
Future LNG Flows in Asia
According to the report, contracted volumes in Asia rise by around 50 mtpa between 2025 and 2030, with China accounting for roughly 40 mtpa of that increase, confirming Asia as the main center of contracted LNG demand over the coming years. However, contracted volumes fall by around 36 mtpa in 2036, suggesting that Asia’s next procurement cycle may be both larger and more concentrated in time than Europe’s.
Japan’s contracted volumes are broadly stable at around 70 mtpa until 2032, before declining gradually to 40 mtpa by 2039 and dropping by nearly 20 mtpa between 2039 and 2040. China records a marked decline after 2036, losing around 23 mtpa. “India and South Korea show smaller but earlier reductions, with India losing 8 mtpa in 2028 and South Korea around 3.5 mtpa. Taken together, these patterns suggest that several Asian markets will need to return to the market over the coming years to maintain supply security.”
Implications for Commodity Traders and Analysts
For commodity traders and procurement teams, India’s aggressive long-term contracting signals sustained demand growth and a shift toward secured supply, reducing spot market exposure. However, the concentration of supply from Qatar and reliance on the Strait of Hormuz introduces geopolitical risk that could disrupt deliveries and boost spot prices. Traders should monitor any developments at Ras Laffan and tensions in the region, as well as the upcoming contracting cycles in Asia, which may tighten the global LNG balance.
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