India's July 2026 crude oil imports from Russia are expected to at least maintain June's rally when barrels from Moscow accounted for half of New Delhi's monthly shipments, according to refiners and traders cited by The Hindu BusinessLine. July imports will surpass 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) with Russia contributing around 2.6-2.7 mb/d, a senior refiner official said. August is likely to follow the same trajectory as first-half supplies are largely booked.
Drivers of Russian Supply Dominance
Russian crude has become India's strongest energy security hedge, particularly since the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) disruptions, according to Kpler, a real-time data and analytics provider. Russian barrels have enabled Indian refiners to maintain high refinery run rates and ensure uninterrupted fuel supplies, avoiding disruptions seen in other Asian refining systems (excluding China), Kpler added. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler's Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, noted that Russian crude imports rose to around 2.6 mb/d in June, accounting for more than 50% of India's crude imports, and have been steadily increasing since March. July arrivals are tracking at healthy levels and could match or even exceed June's volumes.
Shifting Supply Dynamics: Russian vs. West Asian
Currently, Moscow accounts for the majority of India's medium sour grade supply. At the beginning of 2026, almost 50% of India's crude came from West Asia via the Strait of Hormuz. However, that share dwindled to roughly 30% from March 2026 onward after the February 28 attack on Iran by the US led to the closure of the SoH—the largest disruption in energy supplies in history, according to the report.
| Source | Share in India's imports (early 2026) | Share from March 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | Majority of medium sour | ~50% (June) |
| West Asia | ~50% | ~30% |
August may see some displacement of Russian barrels as Saudi Aramco cut August prices of Arab Light by $11 a barrel from last month—the highest cut in over two decades. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased supply via alternate routes, including Saudi's Yanbu port (connected via the East-West pipeline bypassing the SoH), Oman's Sohar port, and UAE's Fujairah and Khor Fakkan ports. However, a refiner noted that the Yanbu route is logistically expensive due to longer travel time to India, which could shift focus back to Russian crude, which is abundantly available due to drone attacks on refineries by Ukraine.
Ritolia stated: "There are currently few alternative suppliers capable of replacing Russian crude at the same scale, reliability, and economics. Russian crude remains the most practical and competitive source of supply for Indian refiners, and under current market conditions, it is difficult to see those volumes disappearing from the system in the near term."
Geopolitical Risks and Seasonality
On the proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 Bill in the US, Ritolia said the tariff proposal raises geopolitical uncertainty, but its practical implementation and ultimate impact on crude flows are far less straightforward than headlines suggest. Any policy that materially disrupts Russian exports would risk tightening an already constrained global oil market, with consequences extending beyond India.
The June-to-September period in India is marked by rains leading to lower mobility and industrial and mining operations, which could temper demand. However, the supply-side dynamics remain firmly in Russia's favor for the near term, as West Asian producers have yet to fully ramp up alternative routes. The coming months will be crucial to see if Saudi and UAE supply can regain lost ground.
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