Gold prices are expected to climb to fresh record highs by the end of 2026, averaging $6,000 per ounce in the final quarter, according to a commodities research report by JP Morgan Global Research. The forecast comes even as spot gold has lost momentum recently, touching an intra-year low of $4,170 per ounce in March 2026 and trading in a narrow range. The report also sees potential for prices to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2027.
JP Morgan's Price Outlook
According to the report, the 2026 and 2027 outlook for gold prices remains ahead of current levels. JP Morgan analysts expect gold to push $6,000/oz by year end 2026, with $6,300/oz a possibility for 2027. This bullish view is underpinned by what the bank describes as largely intact demand factors that have driven the rally over the past few years.
Recent Price Weakness and Technical Levels
Spot gold rallied strongly at the start of 2026, before cooling in March and recently falling to an intra-year low of $4,170/oz, the report noted. Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals at JP Morgan, described gold as "stuck in a bit of a technical no-man's land," trading above its 200-day moving average around $4,340/oz but capped below the 50-day moving average at $4,730/oz. He added that amid this sideways plod, and with growing worries that the Federal Reserve might have to respond to energy-driven inflation with rate hikes, "gold is on the back burner for most investors at the moment."
Central Bank and Chinese Demand
Despite the near-term investor caution, JP Morgan highlighted that central bank buying remains a key driver. While official data showed central banks sold 129 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 and reported net purchases of only 16 tonnes, alternative estimates paint a different picture. Citing World Gold Council estimates based on over-the-counter market data and Swiss refinery flows, the report said gold purchases in Q1 2026 may have reached 244 tonnes, up from 208 tonnes in the previous quarter.
| Metric | Q1 2026 Official | Q1 2026 Alternative Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Central bank net purchases | 16 tonnes | 244 tonnes (World Gold Council) |
China appears to be a major source of demand. According to Shearer, Chinese net imports of gold came in at 317 tonnes in Q1 2026, "up by nearly three times compared to the previous quarter." Furthermore, the People's Bank of China has ramped up its reported purchases from around one tonne per month for the six months through February to five tonnes in March and eight tonnes in April. The report said China's gold accumulation appears to be part of a broader strategy to diversify reserves and strengthen the renminbi's position as an alternative reserve currency.
Key Risks and Uncertainties
JP Morgan noted that the outlook remains clouded by uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and monetary policy. The report stated: "Future demand and price stability seem to depend on the resolution of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and on Fed policy - neither of which are certain at this time." Concerns over higher inflation, erosion of purchasing power, US fiscal pressures, geopolitical fragmentation, and policy uncertainty continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, according to the bank.
For commodity traders and analysts, the key data releases to watch include central bank gold holdings reports, Chinese import figures, and Fed policy signals. The JP Morgan forecast suggests that any dip below the current range could be seen as a buying opportunity, given the structural demand drivers from central banks and China.
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