Gold steadied near $4,135/oz on August 5, 2026, as the metal emerged from a turbulent July during which it repeatedly defended the $4,000/oz support level, according to Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Narvekar said recent price trends suggest the worst of the downside may be behind bullion, despite persistent headwinds from higher-for-longer interest rate expectations.
Gold Finds Support After Volatile July
Through July, treasury yields climbed back toward multi-year highs and the US dollar stayed firm, both acting as significant headwinds for the non-yielding asset, according to Narvekar. Yet gold repeatedly found support around $4,000/oz and ended July with its first monthly gain since February. Early this week, bullion started on a firmer footing, supported by a weaker US dollar, easing crude oil prices following renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts, and improving risk sentiment.
In Indian markets, gold has broadly mirrored the international correction, though the import-duty hike in May and rupee depreciation cushioned local prices. Domestic gold prices are up roughly 6% year-to-date, while the international price is down 7% over the same period.
Central Bank Buying and Asian Demand Underpin Market
The latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report reinforced that the long-term investment case for gold remains intact despite recent price weakness, Narvekar said. Central banks purchased 289 tonnes in Q2, marking the strongest second-quarter buying on record, while China continued adding to its reserves.
Although global ETF flows remained weak during Q2, Asian demand strengthened considerably. July has seen signs of improving ETF inflows, particularly from China, where institutional investors have been buying aggressively on dips around the $4,000/oz level. In India, demand has remained resilient despite elevated prices, supported by a weaker rupee, steady ETF inflows and healthy old-gold exchange activity, helping cushion softer jewellery demand.
Technical Levels and Near-Term Outlook
Gold appears to be transitioning from a sharp correction into a consolidation phase.
Narvekar's analysis points to a transition from sharp correction into consolidation. The repeated defence of $4,000/oz, resilient central bank buying and improving Asian investment demand suggest the bulk of the downside may already be behind us. Elevated real yields and lingering expectations of another Fed rate hike could cap gains in the near term, but easing oil prices reduce the risk of further inflation-driven tightening.
| Contract | Current Price | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Spot) | $4,135/oz | $3,960 / $3,880 | $4,220 / $4,300 |
| MCX Gold | Rs 1,45,350 | Rs 1,39,000 / Rs 1,36,000 | Rs 1,48,300 / Rs 1,50,650 |
| International Silver | $60.70/oz | $58 / $55.00 | $62.50 / $65 |
| MCX Silver (Sept) | Rs 2,24,100 | Rs 2,15,500 / Rs 2,05,800 | Rs 2,28,500 / Rs 2,40,000 |
As long as $4,000/oz holds, gold has the potential to gradually recover toward $4,220/oz, with a sustained move above that zone opening the door to $4,300/oz. Any dip toward $3,900–3,850/oz is likely to attract fresh strategic buying, keeping the broader long-term outlook constructive.
Key Data to Watch This Week
Markets will closely track US labour market data, beginning with the JOLTS job openings report followed by Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, Narvekar said. These releases will be critical in determining whether the Federal Reserve remains on course for a potential September rate hike. Alongside employment data, investors need to watch developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations, oil price movement and the dollar, all of which could influence gold's near-term direction.
The market remains cautious, with traders waiting for fresh economic data before taking aggressive positions. For commodity traders and procurement teams, the $4,000/oz level now serves as the key line in the sand: a sustained hold opens the path toward $4,220 and $4,300, while a break of $3,880 would shift the technical picture.
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