Gold has rebounded sharply in August, recouping earlier losses with a 14% month-to-date gain and roughly 7% last week, briefly trading at $4,700/oz before profit-booking emerged, according to Business Today. The year-to-date gain stands at about 7%, and the metal remains near 12% below pre-war levels. Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, described the set-up as positive with a bullish long-term outlook.
"Gold prices are showing a positive bias, and while short-term news related fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook is bullish," said Vedika Narvekar of Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, as reported by Business Today.
Why Gold Is Rising: Fiscal Concerns and Lower Yields
Business Today attributed the rally to lower US Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, safe-haven demand and strong investment flows. A key trigger was the US Treasury's decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks, which pushed long-term yields lower while refocusing attention on US fiscal risks. With US government debt above $40 trillion and the fiscal deficit still high, concerns around rising debt, inflation and possible dollar debasement are adding to gold's appeal, according to the report.
Investment Demand Broadens with ETF Inflows
Global gold ETFs recorded inflows of about 46.7 tonnes, or $6.4 billion, last week — the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025 and the fifth consecutive week of net buying, Business Today reported. This suggests the rally is being supported by institutional and portfolio investors alongside continued central-bank buying.
In physical markets, India continues to trade at a discount to landed prices, though the gap has narrowed. The discount to landed/import-parity price narrowed to around $45/oz by August 14, from about $100/oz in May/early June, but remained above July's average of $34/oz. China's jewellery demand remains soft, but investment demand is holding up better, supported by strong gold ETF inflows and continued buying by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the report said.
Gold and Silver Technical Levels
The report listed spot gold trading at $4,650/oz, with support at $4,510 and $4,420 and resistance at $4,750 and $4,890. In rupee terms, support is placed at Rs 1,58,700 and Rs 1,55,000, with resistance at Rs 1,67,000 and Rs 1,72,000.
Silver has also rebounded sharply, climbing from around $60 at the start of August and briefly testing $70. International silver is currently at $68.20/oz, with support at $65.50 and $52.50 and resistance at $70.80 and $78.00, according to Business Today. The report noted that silver's drivers mirror gold's, with additional support from strong industrial demand. The Silver Institute expects the silver market to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, supported by demand from electronics, AI-related infrastructure and power grids, while solar demand is likely to moderate due to reduced subsidy support.
| Metal | Current Price | Supports | Resistances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Spot) | $4,650/oz | $4,510 / $4,420 | $4,750 / $4,890 |
| Gold (INR) | — | Rs 1,58,700 / Rs 1,55,000 | Rs 1,67,000 / Rs 1,72,000 |
| Silver (International) | $68.20/oz | $65.50 / $52.50 | $70.80 / $78.00 |
| Silver (INR) | — | Rs 2,34,000 / Rs 2,23,100 | Rs 2,52,700 / Rs 2,78,400 |
Jackson Hole and PCE Data in Focus
The main event for gold this week is the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27–29, with particular attention on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday, Business Today reported. Markets will look for clues on interest rates, inflation and the Fed's view on Treasury yields, while US core PCE inflation will also be important.
A dovish message from Warsh, combined with softer inflation and lower yields, could support another move higher in gold. A hawkish tone or stronger inflation could lead to some profit-taking, according to the report. The near-term outlook remains positive, but PCE data and Jackson Hole could determine the next move. If yields and the dollar remain under pressure, gold could break above $4,700 and move towards $4,880; a hawkish Fed message could instead trigger consolidation. In the longer term, strong ETF inflows, central-bank buying, fiscal concerns, dollar-debasement risks and geopolitical tensions continue to support the bullish case, the report concluded.
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