Ten years after the UK's referendum and six years after the Brexit deal, concrete data on the economic impact is emerging, with studies showing sharp declines in the variety of goods traded between the UK and the European Union, according to a report by the BBC's Faisal Islam.
Export Diversity Drops Sharply
The UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University calculated a 26% reduction in the different types of UK exports to the EU by 2023. A separate study from Aston University Business School, using five years of detailed trade data, reported a 53.8% loss in export varieties and a 31.5% loss in import varieties. These figures represent declines in the number of distinct products shipped to different EU countries, the BBC reported.
| Indicator | Source | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UK export varieties to EU (by 2023) | Sussex University | -26% |
| UK export varieties to EU (5-year data) | Aston University | -53.8% |
| UK import varieties from EU (5-year data) | Aston University | -31.5% |
Red Tape, Not Tariffs, Hurts Start-ups
The BBC profiled Eskimo, a Bristol-based start-up that developed a high-fashion, energy-efficient electric radiator using technology from local academics. Despite the zero-tariff deal struck in December 2020 by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the company faced bottlenecks. Phil Ward, Eskimo's boss, told the BBC that in 2020, 40% of his exports went to the EU; by 2025, that figure had fallen to 5% . Ward attributes the decline to "the Long Brexit effect" — non-tariff red tape and paperwork that created delays, costs, and hassle for prospective customers. The company stopped selling directly to European consumers entirely and abandoned a planned expansion into Germany, according to the BBC.
CE Mark and Lost Opportunities
Eskimo also found that exporting to Australia and New Zealand was complicated because those countries abide by international safety standards heavily influenced by the EU's CE mark. One theoretical benefit of Brexit — allowing UK regulators to diverge from EU safety rules to take a more pro-innovation approach — has not materialized for the start-up, the BBC reported.
Economic Consensus and Context
The BBC noted that a decade ago many economists predicted long-term damage from leaving the EU. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Iran conflict have added global shocks. While some of the most negative predictions — such as a Great Depression-style hit — proved unduly pessimistic, economists who assert damage say it has been profound. "Among economists there is not much debate, but there still is among policy folks," the BBC quoted an unnamed economist as saying, paraphrasing the view that the damage was worse than thought.
The data from Sussex and Aston universities, combined with company-level evidence from firms like Eskimo, indicate that Brexit has imposed a structural cost on UK trade diversity that tariff-free access alone could not prevent.
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