Ten years after 52% of British voters backed leaving the European Union in the June 23, 2016 referendum, the economic and political consequences of Brexit continue to divide the country, with trade friction and a smaller economy headlining the legacy, according to AP.
Economic Reality Falls Short of Promises
Supporters of Brexit argued that leaving the EU would allow Britain to regain control over policymaking and strike new global trade deals. However, according to AP and experts cited, the expected economic boost has not materialised. Businesses continue to face customs paperwork, border checks, certifications and other non-tariff barriers while trading with the EU, which remains Britain's largest trading partner. Several trade deals championed by Brexit supporters, including one with the United States, have yet to be concluded.
Economists estimate that the British economy is between 4% and 8% smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the bloc. "Brexit has made the UK economy smaller than it otherwise would have been," said Jonathan Portes, professor at King's College London, as quoted by AP. "The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity," he wrote in an article for the The UK in a Changing Europe think tank.
Brexit supporters argue that the project should be judged over decades and that greater control over domestic policies will eventually outweigh short-term disruption.
Immigration Patterns Shift
One core promise of the Brexit campaign was tighter control over immigration. While migration from EU countries has fallen sharply, arrivals from non-EU nations increased after changes to visa rules designed to address labour shortages in sectors such as healthcare and elderly care. Net migration has since fallen from more than 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year (likely 2025), according to the source. Public anger now focuses on asylum seekers arriving in small boats across the English Channel, a fraction of overall migration.
| Metric | 2023 | 2025 (estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| Net migration | >900,000 | 171,000 |
Brexit Reshapes UK Politics
The referendum transformed Britain's political landscape. The Conservatives, who spent years divided over Europe, were voted out of office in 2024 after 14 years. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government has struggled to win over voters, while support for Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, has surged.
Public opinion appears to be shifting. According to Ipsos surveys:
- 52% of Britons would support rejoining the EU, while 33% oppose the idea.
- 48% believe Brexit has gone worse than expected, compared with just 9% who think it has gone better.
- Nearly half of respondents said they would support another referendum on EU membership.
Can Britain Reverse Course?
Despite changing sentiment, reversing Brexit remains politically difficult. The Labour government has ruled out rejoining the EU or returning to the bloc's single market, instead pursuing a "reset" in relations focused on reducing trade friction. Andy Burnham, viewed as a possible future Labour leader, recently dismissed suggestions that Britain should reconsider EU membership. "I am not proposing that the U.K. considers rejoining the EU," Burnham said, as quoted by the source. "I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it is going to undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy if we don't respect that vote."
A decade after the referendum, Brexit may be legally complete, but its economic, political and social consequences continue to shape Britain's future, with trade policy professionals closely watching the UK-EU reset for any reduction in customs friction.
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