U.S. container imports are on track to smash the all-time monthly record in July 2026, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), as retailers accelerate shipments ahead of an expected round of tariff increases. The NRF's monthly Global Port Tracker projects import volume of 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, which would top the previous peak of 2.4 million TEU recorded in May 2022 as the U.S. economy rebounded from the pandemic.
Record Import Volumes Forecast
The NRF reported that U.S. ports handled 2.24 million TEU in May 2026, an increase of 14.9% from a year earlier, when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs sharply reduced imports. May traffic was 10.1% higher than April. Preliminary estimates for June put volumes at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7% year-over-year, bringing first-half 2026 total volume to 12.77 million TEU, a gain of 2% compared with the same period in 2025.
Tariff Uncertainty Drives Front-Loading
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, noted that this year's early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties. The ongoing conflict in Iran is also stoking supply chain impacts, Gold said, testing consumer resilience. "Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits," he added.
The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expire July 24, while a new round of tariffs related to forced labor in 60 countries is expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August. This policy timeline is driving importers to pull forward shipments into the summer months.
Monthly TEU Forecast Table
| Month | Volume (TEU) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 (actual) | 2,240,000 | +14.9% |
| June 2026 (est.) | 2,330,000 | +18.7% |
| July 2026 (forecast) | 2,470,000 | +3.3% (vs prior month) |
| August 2026 (forecast) | 2,220,000 | -4.5% |
| September 2026 (forecast) | 1,990,000 | -5.7% |
| October 2026 (forecast) | 1,990,000 | -3.8% |
| November 2026 (forecast) | 1,920,000 | -5.2% |
Source: NRF Global Port Tracker via FreightWaves
Peak Season Shift
Port labor disputes and tariff increases in recent years have shifted the traditional peak shipping season from around October to the May-through-July period, the NRF noted. This structural change means peak capacity constraints and congestion risks are now occurring earlier in the year.
Implications for Operators
Ocean carriers and port terminals should prepare for a concentrated spike in July, with import volumes exceeding 2.47 million TEU collectively at major U.S. gateways. The subsequent drop-off in August through November — forecast at 4.5% to 5.7% below prior year levels — may create imbalances in container availability and equipment repositioning. Freight forwarders should advise shippers to secure space early for July arrivals and consider contract rates that reflect the near-term demand surge. Dwell times at East and Gulf Coast ports could rise if labor disruptions or chassis shortages emerge.
Full-Year 2025 Context
Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024, indicating that the current growth is more a short-term front-loading cycle than a sustained demand upswing.
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