Truckload tender rejections are settling at 13.57% — up sharply from roughly 6% in January and down from a July 4th holiday peak above 17.5% — according to FreightWaves SONAR data reviewed on air by Craig Fuller and Julie Van de Kamp.
A Healthy Baseline, Not a Warning Sign
According to FreightWaves, the stabilization signals an orderly market heading into what has historically been a volatile fourth quarter for freight. Fuller described the current rejection rate as a healthy baseline — not a sign of weakness. The market's definition of "tight" has shifted: brokers using SONAR previously told the company that 8% tender rejections felt tight, but now they say 12% to 13% is where things feel tight and where they have a little bit more leverage with shippers, Fuller said.
This feels like a healthy market to really get your ducks in a row for what you want your spot contract mix to be. Whether you're a shipper, a broker, or a carrier, to have a minute to catch up and figure out, okay, this is what I want my spot contract mix to be, knowing there's gonna be a little bit more volatility in the 4th quarter. — Craig Fuller
Van de Kamp characterized the roughly 6% January reading as the cycle trough and argued that the 13.5% figure is likely a market floor for this cycle, noting rejection rates historically firm up through September, October and November even in softer freight environments.
Spot Rates Firming Ahead of Q4
Spot rates are already showing early signs of seasonal firming. FreightWaves SONAR daily spot rate data shows a 7% increase from August 22 through the morning of the broadcast, more than offsetting a dip earlier in the month. Over the full month, spot rates are down just 0.3%, with early August swinging as high as 6% before the late-month rebound.
| Metric | Reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Tender rejections (current) | 13.57% | FreightWaves SONAR |
| Tender rejections (July 4th peak) | Above 17.5% | FreightWaves SONAR |
| Tender rejections (January trough) | Roughly 6% | FreightWaves SONAR |
| Spot rates, Aug 22 to late Aug | +7% | FreightWaves SONAR daily spot rate data |
| Full-month spot rate change | −0.3% | FreightWaves SONAR |
| Early-August spot rate swing | Up to 6% | FreightWaves SONAR |
What Shippers and Carriers Should Do Now
For shippers and carriers, the current window of stability is framed as an opportunity rather than a lull, according to FreightWaves. Accepted truckload volumes and overall tender volumes are moving in tandem — a pattern SONAR data indicates is consistent with stable, predictable freight flow. Carriers are described as securing rate increases, while shippers are not facing freight left on the dock.
Fuller said volatility will return, but the near-term picture gives market participants time to set their spot-to-contract freight mix before conditions tighten. Van de Kamp pointed to multiple seasonal catalysts that could push rejection rates higher heading into fall.
Watch List
- Later Labor Day: The holiday shifts the fall freight surge, with back-to-school freight returning after the holiday in parts of the country.
- Early holiday peak season: Retailers seek to move West Coast import freight sooner to avoid excess inventory risk, according to Van de Kamp and Fuller.
- October year-over-year comparisons: The market is approaching the one-year anniversary of English proficiency enforcement and non-domiciled CDL crackdowns, making October a closely watched metric.
- Sustained spot rate firming: The late-August 7% rebound bears watching to see whether monthly spot rates move positive.
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