Shippers moved less freight between April and June and paid sharply more to do it, as tightening truck capacity outweighed a late-quarter drop in diesel prices, according to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index released Tuesday. The index's National Shipment Index fell 1.1% from the first quarter to 75.1 — the second consecutive sequential decline — while shipper spending rose 6.4% to 230.4.
The annual comparison is wider still: volumes dropped 2.8% from a year earlier, reversing the first quarter's 0.6% gain, which had been the first annual increase in four years. Spending climbed 28.1% year-over-year, according to the index.
While higher fuel prices added to transportation costs in the second quarter, fuel was not the primary force behind the increase in shipper spending. — Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations
Capacity Exit Outweighed the Fuel Spike
Fuel was not cheap. DAT Freight & Analytics reported second-quarter fuel costs of 75 cents per mile, 47.1% above the first quarter and 78.6% above a year earlier. The one favorable development for shippers came late in the quarter, when the national average diesel price fell from an April peak above $5.64 per gallon to $4.67, nearly a dollar lower.
Capacity did the heavier lifting. Three-plus years of recession pushed small, midsize and large fleets out of the market amid weak rates, rising costs and softer volumes. That exit never fully matched low demand, but it narrowed the gap, according to the report. Industry participants have also pointed to English language proficiency (ELP) enforcement, non-domiciled commercial driver's license revocations and increased oversight of driver training schools as factors that brought supply closer to demand.
Spot Rates Nearly Caught Contract Rates
The rate data shows how fast the rate floor moved. DAT reported average spot rates of $3.02 per mile in the second quarter, an 18.9% jump that followed an 11.9% gain in the first quarter. That is 75 cents, or 33%, above the fourth quarter of 2025 and 88 cents, or 41.1%, above year-earlier levels. Contract rates rose too, though less violently, averaging $3.06 per mile — up 13% sequentially and 20.9%, or 53 cents, from the second quarter of 2025. Neither figure includes fuel.
The gap between spot and contract rates is now 4 cents; a year earlier it was 39 cents. Spot pricing has effectively converged with contract pricing. That convergence is the forward indicator worth watching: spot moves first and contract follows on the next bid cycle, which means the harder market for shippers is still in front of them, not behind.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | QoQ Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Shipment Index | 75.1 | -1.1% | -2.8% |
| Shipper spending index | 230.4 | +6.4% | +28.1% |
| Spot rate per mile | $3.02 | +18.9% | +41.1% |
| Contract rate per mile | $3.06 | +13.0% | +20.9% |
Southwest Shows What Tight Capacity Costs
No region illustrates the split more sharply than the Southwest. Shipments there fell 0.6% sequentially and 20.2% year-over-year, while spending rose 11.2% and 39.9% over the same periods. Across the first half of 2026, regional shipments dropped just over 10% from the fourth quarter of 2025 while shipper spending increased nearly 24%, according to the index.
Tighter capacity appears to be the primary driver, the report said. The Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Transportation increased coordination around possible cabotage violations by Mexican B-1 drivers during the quarter, resulting in significant B-1 visa cancellations. Given the Southwest's role in cross-border freight, those developments may be more visible there. Demand was soft on its own, too: housing starts across the broader South fell 14.4%.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
For shippers, the combination of falling volumes and rising spending is negative operating leverage in its purest freight form: a shrinking book of loads costing more per load, with no volume growth to absorb the difference. Carriers seeing more freight may be benefiting from fewer fleets chasing the same loads, not from broad-based demand recovery, according to the report. With spot rates converging on contract rates, the next contract bid cycle is likely to reflect the tighter floor.
Watch List
- Spot versus contract rate gap: currently 4 cents; a rebound would signal easing, further convergence would signal continued tightening.
- Diesel prices: the national average fell to $4.67 by late Q2 after peaking above $5.64 in April.
- Cabotage enforcement: DHS and DOT coordination on Mexican B-1 driver activity could further reduce cross-border capacity in the Southwest.
- Housing starts: the 14.4% decline across the South points to soft regional demand that may offset capacity-driven rate pressure.
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