Transportation programs built around single-carrier lanes, fixed modes and rigid procurement cycles are facing their costliest stress test in years, according to the recent SONAR Sitrep report from FreightWaves. The report examines how shippers can protect service and cost when market conditions shift, as key indicators signal carrier leverage at multi-year highs.
Record Carrier Leverage and Rate Pressure
The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index climbed to 17.64% on June 21, 2026 – its highest level since March 2022 – and currently sits near 16%, according to the report. The National Truckload Index reached an all-time high of $3.78 per mile on June 28, while the spot-to-contract spread widened to approximately $0.51 per mile, the highest since 2021.
Intermodal Savings at Historic Levels
Modal conversion presents one of the clearest opportunities for cost relief. The Intermodal Contract Savings Index stands at 31.52%, with a year-to-date average of 23.78% – more than double prior-year same-week levels, the report stated. As truckload contract rates have repriced upward, intermodal contract pricing has not kept pace, widening the savings available on comparable lanes to the largest differential in the index’s recent history. For shippers with transit-tolerant, rail-eligible freight, the spread signals that lane-level conversion reviews warrant attention.
Additional modal conversion options include shifting underweight truckload moves to LTL shipments and moving lanes between spot and contract channels based on spread conditions. With the spot-to-contract spread now positive after running negative through most of 2022-2025, lanes heavily reliant on spot markets have become candidates for contract conversion through targeted mini-bids.
Tariff Frontloading Exposes Geographic Concentration
Geographic constraints compounded market pressure during the first half of 2026. With a temporary tariff set to expire July 24, importers pulled volume forward into a compressed window, driving a surge of containerized freight through U.S. gateways concentrated on the West Coast, according to the report. Shippers dependent on a single gateway absorbed the full impact of both the surge and subsequent pullback. Those with qualified alternatives had more options to smooth timing and inland-capacity impacts.
Six Dimensions of Transportation Optionality
The report organizes transportation flexibility into six practical dimensions:
- Carrier Optionality: Maintaining multiple qualified carriers on critical lanes with a tested tender waterfall, rather than treating every rejection as an emergency spot-market event.
- Modal Optionality: Preserving the ability to shift freight among truckload, intermodal and LTL based on cost, service and capacity requirements.
- Geographic Optionality: Qualifying alternate origins, destinations, ports, gateways or distribution points when one market becomes constrained.
- Facility Optionality: Enabling flexible appointment windows, drop-trailer capability, alternate shipping hours and overflow locations to preserve carrier access.
- Procurement Optionality: Moving beyond a single annual bid decision to include trigger-based lane reviews, extension and reopener options, and preapproved recovery channels.
- Network Optionality: Coordinating the other five dimensions into an executable response with documented decision sequences, standing owners and tested playbooks.
Key Market Indicators at a Glance
| Indicator | Value | Date/Context |
|---|---|---|
| SONAR Truckload Rejection Index | 17.64% (peak), ~16% (current) | June 21, 2026; highest since March 2022 |
| National Truckload Index | $3.78/mile | June 28, 2026 (all-time high) |
| Spot-to-Contract Spread | ~$0.51/mile | Highest since 2021 |
| Intermodal Contract Savings Index | 31.52% (current), YTD avg 23.78% | More than double prior-year same-week |
90-Day Implementation Roadmap
The SONAR Sitrep also details a 90-day implementation roadmap for building transportation flexibility. It emphasizes that optionality built before market tightening costs less than alternatives sourced under pressure – a distinction the current market has made measurable.
The report's insights are particularly timely as shippers face the expiration of a temporary tariff on July 24, which has already driven West Coast container surges. For freight forwarders, logistics managers, and supply chain directors, the message is clear: investing in network flexibility across carriers, modes, geographies, facilities, procurement strategies, and overall network coordination is no longer optional but essential to withstand market volatility.
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