The Freight Rail Index has climbed to its highest level since 2008 after four consecutive months of gains, tightening rail capacity and accelerating a modal shift away from trucks across North America.
FreightWaves reported that the index — a seasonally adjusted measure of rail volume excluding coal and grain — reached its second-highest level since 2008 in the initial snapshot, and separately noted it has climbed to its highest level since 2008. The data suggests a broader economic expansion beyond just data centers, according to FreightWaves.
Week 31: North American Rail Traffic Up 3.6%
North American rail traffic rose 3.6% in Week 31, with carloads up 3.9% and intermodal up 3.3%, according to Association of American Railroads (AAR) data cited by FreightWaves. Rail volume grew faster than overall GDP during the period — a milestone not seen since before the Great Recession, according to Bill Stephens.
"Rail traffic grew faster than overall GDP," Stephens said. "We haven't seen that in a long time."
Ex-Coal and Intermodal Records
Stripping out coal, U.S. carload volume was up 4.7% for Week 31, well ahead of the flat volumes recorded over the prior four weeks, according to FreightWaves. FreightWaves also reported July carload traffic excluding coal rose 3.2%, while intermodal set a record for the month of July and posted a 6.1% year-over-year gain — its sixth consecutive month of growth and the seventh straight month of overall carload expansion.
| Metric | Change |
|---|---|
| North American rail traffic, Week 31 | +3.6% |
| Carloads, Week 31 | +3.9% |
| Intermodal, Week 31 | +3.3% |
| U.S. carloads ex-coal, Week 31 | +4.7% |
| U.S. carloads ex-coal, July | +3.2% |
| Intermodal, July year-over-year | +6.1% |
"Manufacturing and rail activity are moving along together. The manufacturing is expanding at a pace not seen in several years, which underscores the close link between factory output and rail volumes," Stephens said, citing AAR's Rail Industry Overview released the week of the data.
Intermodal vs. Truckload: The 34% Gap
Intermodal's momentum is drawing freight away from trucks, with a 34% price discount between intermodal and truckload rates cited as a key driver, according to FreightWaves. The outlet's data showed both the Truckload Volume Index and loaded rail container volume each rose exactly 4.4% over the most recent three-month period — a near-perfect offset that helps explain why spot truck demand has not accelerated despite a broader freight recovery.
Stephens noted that shippers typically need a sustained belief in economic stability and tight capacity before committing to intermodal conversions.
North-South Corridors and the Crew Rule Ruling
Growth is shifting geographically. North-south corridors — particularly Chicago-to-Atlanta lanes and new intermodal services connecting Mexico's industrial regions to the U.S. Southeast and Chicago — are outperforming the traditionally dominant, and now mature, Chicago-to-East Coast lanes, according to FreightWaves.
On the regulatory front, a U.S. District Court upheld the Federal Railroad Administration's two-person crew rule, which the FRA finalized in 2024, according to FreightWaves. Several Class I railroads, the AAR, and the Short Line Association had challenged the rule as arbitrary and beyond the FRA's authority, FreightWaves reported. The decision leaves open whether railroads will pursue further appeals.
Fuller noted the ruling creates a tension with broader Department of Transportation policy encouraging autonomous truck development, with railroads arguing the mandate prevents them from exploring single-person or autonomous operations, according to FreightWaves.
Separately, Amtrak is facing locomotive availability problems in the Midwest, prompting Stephens to file a Freedom of Information request with the agency Monday morning to determine the scope of the issue, FreightWaves reported.
Watch List
- Whether railroads appeal the two-person crew rule ruling and whether the dispute reaches higher courts.
- The scope of Amtrak's Midwest locomotive availability issues.
- Whether sustained economic stability and tight capacity trigger additional shipper conversions to intermodal.
- Whether north-south corridors continue to outpace the mature Chicago-to-East Coast lanes.
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