J.B. Hunt's over-the-road (OTR) business posted a loss in the second quarter even as spot capacity rates surged roughly 40% above year-ago levels, highlighting the pressure on carriers as costs outpace contract pricing, according to FreightWaves. Josh Fellin, who oversees the carrier's JBT over-the-road segment, said the segment grew double digits for five consecutive quarters but was caught in the sharp inflection as spot costs overwhelmed its drop-trailer, contract-heavy model that relies on both company independent contractors and third-party capacity.
Supply-Driven Rally Amplified by Cost Inflation
Fellin argued the direction of the rate rally is supply-driven, but the magnitude reflects four years of margin erosion. According to FreightWaves, he stated that operating costs per mile have risen 48% to 60% since 2019, while contract rates over the same period are up only 5% to 6% — a gap that starved the industry of the returns needed to reinvest in equipment.
"If you go back to '19, you'll see it quoted anywhere from 48% to 60% on a cost-per-mile basis to operate a truck. And the rate environment that we've been in inside the marketplace, same period comparison might be up 5% to 6%."
| Metric | Since 2019 Change |
|---|---|
| Operating cost per mile | +48% to +60% |
| Contract rates | +5% to +6% |
| Spot rates (June 2026, NTI index) | +60% YoY |
Spot vs. Contract: The Bid Season Fix
Fellin placed the current upcycle firmly in its early stages, according to FreightWaves. He noted the NTI spot-rate index hit 60% above year-over-year levels as recently as June, but contract rates still lag. "To fix pricing at current cost levels, it's going to take another bid season," he said, adding that intermodal and dedicated contract economics tend to move later than the spot market. The implication for shippers is that contract rates are likely to continue rising as carriers push to restore margins.
Driver Pay and Capacity Constraints
On driver availability, Fellin said tightening in the third-party capacity pool has quickly spilled into J.B. Hunt's own driver pipeline. He warned that driver pay — which took a step up in 2021 and 2022 but has seen only gradual increases since — is likely to see another significant move in 2025 and into 2027. That added cost pressure compounds the rate relief carriers still need to earn acceptable returns, creating a counterbalancing force that could limit how aggressively the industry expands capacity.
On fleet growth, Fellin said smaller carriers face two headwinds absent in prior upcycles: financing costs are far higher than they were in 2020, and tractor availability remains constrained. Large carriers, he said, will demand a clearer line of sight to sustainable returns before committing capital. "We're not going to just grow our top line for sake of our bottom line," he said, echoing remarks attributed to J.B. Hunt's broader leadership. J.B. Hunt's preferred expansion targets remain dedicated contract services and intermodal rather than open-market over-the-road.
Electric Trucks Not Ready for Long Haul
When asked about electric vehicles in long-haul trucking, Fellin said battery-electric trucks are not ready for high-utilization, long-haul applications and that meaningful adoption remains "quite a ways off," though J.B. Hunt is actively testing zero-emission vehicles in specific, shorter-cycle use cases such as drayage and localized dedicated routes where charging infrastructure is more accessible, according to FreightWaves.
What Shippers and Operators Should Watch
The widening gap between spot and contract rates, combined with rising driver pay and equipment costs, points to continued upward pressure on freight rates across all modes. For logistics managers and freight forwarders, the key near-term signal is the next bid season for contract renewals. Carriers will likely push for significant increases to recover the cost inflation that has eroded margins since 2019. Meanwhile, available capacity may remain constrained as smaller carriers struggle with financing and larger ones await clearer return prospects.
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