Maersk’s earnings upgrade for 2026 marks a dramatic reversal for the world’s second-largest containerline and signals that the liner shipping industry is on track for another highly profitable year, according to Splash247.
Just months ago, the Danish shipping giant warned investors it could post an underlying EBIT loss of as much as $1.5bn this year. Now, after a sustained surge in freight rates and stronger-than-expected cargo demand, Maersk expects to deliver an underlying operating profit of between $2bn and $4bn, as reported by Splash247. The company’s underlying EBITDA guidance has been lifted to $8bn-$10bn from a previous range of $4.5bn-$7bn, while the outlook for global container demand has been raised to around 4% growth this year from an earlier forecast of 2% to 4%.
| Metric | Previous Guidance | Updated Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EBIT | Loss up to $1.5bn | Profit $2bn–$4bn |
| Underlying EBITDA | $4.5bn–$7bn | $8bn–$10bn |
| Global container demand growth | 2%–4% | ~4% |
Freight Rates and Demand Surge
The speed of the turnaround underscores how quickly fortunes can change in container shipping, Splash247 notes. Industry data suggests Maersk is far from alone. Linerlytica estimates global teu-mile demand is currently expanding by 7.3%, comfortably ahead of fleet supply growth of 5.4%, producing the widest demand-supply gap since late 2024. Congestion has also returned with force: almost 11% of the world’s containership fleet is currently waiting outside ports, the highest level since 2022.
Spot freight rates reflect the improvement. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has climbed above 3,200 points, more than double pre-conflict levels according to HSBC, while rates on both Asia-Europe and transpacific trades continue to rise. Xeneta expects network disruption linked to the Gulf crisis to persist into September even under an optimistic scenario, suggesting freight rates could remain firm for several more weeks.
Capacity and Congestion Constraints
The market remains an unusual combination of strength and caution. On paper, supply should be overwhelming demand: the containership orderbook stands at roughly 12m teu, equivalent to more than one-third of the existing fleet, with deliveries expected to peak next year. Under normal circumstances, that volume of new tonnage would place severe downward pressure on freight markets.
Instead, effective capacity continues to be absorbed by longer voyage distances, congestion, tactical capacity management, and periodic geopolitical disruption. The Red Sea crisis continues to reshape global networks, while recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have added fresh uncertainty to vessel deployment and scheduling, Splash247 reports.
Shipper and Operator Implications
For freight forwarders, logistics managers, and shippers, the immediate implications are clear: high freight rates and capacity constraints are here for the foreseeable future. The persistent congestion means longer transit times and increased dwell risks at major hubs. Shippers on Asia-Europe and transpacific lanes should expect continued rate firmness and potential equipment shortages. Operators should prepare for schedule unreliability and consider longer lead times in their supply chain planning.
The guidance upgrade from Maersk sends a clear message that predictions earlier this year of oversupply dominating 2026 have given way to a very different reality. Container shipping has once again demonstrated its ability to defy conventional market logic, turning what looked like a year of losses into another period of substantial profitability.
The consensus remains that the current strength represents another disruption-driven phase rather than the start of a new supercycle.
Outlook and Watch List
Despite the current strength, few analysts believe the buoyant conditions will last indefinitely. The consensus is that as more newbuildings enter service over the next two years and geopolitical bottlenecks gradually ease, freight markets are expected to normalise, according to Splash247.
Watch list for coming weeks:
- Newbuilding deliveries: The orderbook of ~12m teu is expected to peak next year, potentially easing supply constraints.
- Geopolitical tensions: Developments in the Gulf, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz could further disrupt or ease vessel diversions.
- Demand growth: Global container demand growth of ~4% will be monitored for signs of softening.
- Congestion levels: If the port congestion (11% of fleet waiting) eases, capacity could free up quickly.
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