French containment specialist GTT expects around 550 LNG carriers to be ordered over the coming decade, according to a report by Splash247, a development that will significantly expand the global LNG fleet and impact shipping capacity and spot rates for logistics operators.
The forecast covers contracts placed between 2026 and 2035 and sits alongside expected demand for between 25 and 40 very large and ultra-large ethane carriers, up to 10 floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs), as many as 10 floating LNG units, and around 30 onshore storage tanks. The scale of the prediction is particularly striking given the amount of LNG tonnage already on order.
Current Fleet and Orderbook
Clarksons Research counted 908 LNG carriers with combined capacity of 139.7m cubic metres in service as of July 1, according to the report. Another 338 ships totalling 54.3m cu m were on order, equivalent to 38.9% of the existing fleet by capacity. The backlog is concentrated in the mainstream large-carrier segment: Clarksons lists 243 ships of between 150,000 and 180,000 cu m on order, representing 44.1% of the capacity already trading in that size range.
Delivery schedules are substantial. Around 11.4m cu m of capacity is scheduled for delivery during the remainder of 2026, followed by 15.2m cu m in 2027 and 27.8m cu m from 2028 onwards.
GTT's Market Position
GTT is responsible for the containment systems on the large majority of this construction wave. The company ended June with 272 LNG carriers in its core orderbook. Compared with Clarksons' global total of 338 ships, GTT technology is specified on roughly four out of every five LNG carriers currently on order or under construction.
Demand Drivers
The large global orderbook has already created periods when vessel deliveries have run ahead of new liquefaction capacity, placing pressure on utilisation and spot earnings. However, GTT believes long-term demand will be sufficient. Another 37m tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity has reached final investment decision (FID) this year, including 21m tonnes in the US. That followed a record 84m tonnes sanctioned last year, creating significant shipping requirements as the projects move towards production.
The company expects LNG demand to expand at a compound annual rate of around 5% between 2026 and 2035, with approximately 80% of the increase coming from Asia. European energy-security concerns and rising requirements in the Middle East are also supporting its outlook.
Shipyard Capacity Expansion
Shipbuilders are expanding capacity in anticipation. GTT estimates the number of annual LNG carrier construction slots at Korean and Chinese yards has risen from around 55 in 2020 to 90 this year and will exceed 100 by 2028.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
The forecast suggests today's record orderbook is not the end of the LNG carrier cycle. The challenge for owners will be matching the delivery of hundreds of expensive new ships with the precise start-up dates of the export projects intended to employ them. For freight forwarders and logistics managers, the massive influx of newbuildings could ease vessel availability and potentially soften spot rates in the medium term, but near-term congestion from deliveries may lead to operational bottlenecks at key LNG terminals.
Watch List
- Further FIDs on liquefaction projects, especially in the US and Middle East, which will determine the pace of vessel deployment.
- Yard slot availability at Korean and Chinese shipbuilders as they approach the 100-slot-per-year mark.
- Delivery schedules for the 338 ships already on order and the 550 additional vessels forecast, as mismatches with export project start dates could cause volatility in LNG shipping rates.
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