Truckload linehaul rates ripped higher in July even as freight volumes weakened, with Cass Information Systems' TL linehaul index rising 2.3% from June and 8.6% year over year — the 19th consecutive annual increase and the largest in four years, according to the monthly report from Cass Information Systems.
The rate surge unfolded against a backdrop of declining shipments: Cass's freight shipments index fell 4.8% y/y in July, accelerating from a 4.1% drop in June and widening from May's 1.2% decline. According to the report:
"Some of the softness is the result of higher fuel prices, but to a large extent, volumes are still soft because capacity is declining."
The report added that rail intermodal is gaining share from trucking, with total intermodal carloads on U.S. Class I railroads up approximately 5% y/y in July.
Linehaul Index Posts Largest Annual Gain in Four Years
The Cass TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, includes for-hire spot rates but is historically heavily weighted to contract rates, according to the report. The dataset is up 11.2% over the past two years. All domestic transportation modes are included in the index, with truckload accounting for over 50% and less-than-truckload (LTL) representing approximately 25%, the report stated.
| July 2026 | y/y | 2-year | m/m | m/m (SA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipments | -4.8% | -11.4% | -2.6% | -2.2% |
| Expenditures | 9.1% | 9.6% | -3.4% | -2.1% |
| TL Linehaul Index | 8.6% | 11.2% | 2.3% | NM |
Note: SA = seasonally adjusted; NM = not meaningful.
Shipments Decline Deepens as Diesel Prices Rise
Cass's expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, rose 9.1% y/y in July but slipped 3.4% from June, down 2.1% seasonally adjusted, according to the report. The decline in shipments and a rise in diesel prices drove the monthly pullback, FreightWaves reported. On a seasonally adjusted basis, July shipments were down 2.2% from June, which itself fell 2.9% from May, the report said.
Carriers See 'Flight to Quality' as Shippers Vet Partners
During second-quarter earnings season, publicly traded carriers noted "a flight to quality," as shippers grew increasingly selective about partners, according to FreightWaves. Potential legal blowback from selecting a non-compliant carrier, or one that cannot deliver capacity as promised during peak season, were among the reasons cited. Schneider National's one-way fleet captured double-digit rate increases on contract renewals in the quarter, FreightWaves reported. The company flagged the loss of a large dedicated customer but said it plans to place that equipment into the spot market to take advantage of favorable market dynamics.
Werner CEO Sees No Concern in July Data
Werner Enterprises' Chairman and CEO Derek Leathers, speaking Tuesday at Deutsche Bank's Chicago Industrials Summit, dismissed the seasonal slowdown.
"There's no concern, if you will, from my perspective about … some of these little snippets of news that we've seen in July," Leathers said.
He said the supply-led recovery is still in the early stages, noting that the current administration is not backing off its crackdown on bad actors. Werner's one-way fleet restructuring produced a 28% y/y jump in revenue per truck per week excluding fuel surcharges, with miles per truck up 16% and revenue per total mile up 10% — despite carrying only half the spot market exposure of a year ago and an average length of haul 100 miles greater y/y, according to FreightWaves. The carrier's third-quarter forecast calls for a 10% to 13% y/y increase in rate per mile, and it is looking to grow the fleet again after nearly cutting it in half since the end of 2022, with some equipment moved to its dedicated fleet.
August Outlook: Shipments Index Expected to Fall 3%
Cass said the shipments index would be down 3% y/y in August if typical seasonal patterns occur, according to the report. For shippers and operators, the July data signals that contract rates remain on an upward trajectory while volumes soften — a dynamic favoring carriers with compliant, reliable capacity. Shippers should expect further rate pressure on contract renewals and consider locking in capacity with proven carriers as peak season approaches, while monitoring diesel prices and intermodal competition, which continues to gain share from truckload.
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