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Commodities Oil market absorbs war shock through buffers but stocks run thin: IMF blog warns
The global oil market weathered the biggest supply disruption in decades after the Strait of Hormuz was closed due to war in West Asia, according to an IMF blog. Prices stabilized in the $90-100 per barrel range as demand compression, non-Gulf production increases, and inventory drawdowns offset the loss of about 20 million barrels per day. However, by end-May over 1.1 billion barrels had not reached market, and the IMF warns that buffers are now thin, leaving the world more vulnerable to future shocks.
Business IMF Says India Remains a Key Driver of Global Economic Growth
The International Monetary Fund has retained India's growth projection at 6.5% for fiscal year 2026-27, citing robust domestic demand and US tariff reductions. Director Julie Kozack noted India's economy outperformed expectations in Q1, while the IMF sees positive developments from the Middle East ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Business IMF Chief Economist Warns AI Boom Could Fuel Inflation Through Supply and Demand Channels
International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Bloomberg that the artificial intelligence boom is generating inflationary pressures through both supply chain bottlenecks and a demand-side wealth effect. He pointed to recent price increases from Apple and Microsoft as evidence, and warned that the inflation story is just beginning, while also flagging energy and fiscal risks.