India is projected to surpass China in terms of its share of global GDP measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) by around 2060. This shift is attributed to China's stabilizing and eventually declining contribution to the world economy in the latter half of the century, as detailed in a report by researchers associated with the World Inequality Lab.
Demographic and Economic Shifts
The report, titled Global Justice Report: A Plan for Equality and Prosperity With Planetary Boundaries, indicates that China's share of global GDP currently stands at about 20% in PPP terms. This is roughly one-third higher than that of the US and is projected to become nearly twice as large as the American economy by 2035 under its benchmark projections. However, China's demographic trends are expected to reshape that trajectory over the longer term.
"China's population share is falling very fast, from 23 per cent of the world population in 1945 to about 17 per cent in 2025 and less than 8 per cent in 2100," the report states.
Comparative Economic Projections
The report argues that China is unlikely to attain the level of economic dominance once enjoyed by the United States or Europe during their peak periods. The global economy is likely to become increasingly multipolar during the 21st century, unlike the more concentrated economic structures that characterized the 19th and 20th centuries.
| Country | Projected GDP 2026 ($ trillion) |
|---|---|
| US | 32.38 |
| China | 20.85 |
| India | 4.15 |
| UK | 4.27 |
| Japan | 4.38 |
Inequality and Productivity
The report also highlights differences in inequality and productivity growth between the two Asian economies. "It is also striking that India has much more inequality than China, but much lower productivity growth," it notes, attributing this to larger and better-targeted human capital expenditure in China.
Future Economic Landscape
According to the latest World Economic Outlook projections, India's GDP is expected to rise to about $4.15 trillion in 2026 from $3.92 trillion in 2025. The US is projected to remain the world's largest economy in 2026 with a GDP of $32.38 trillion, followed by China at $20.85 trillion.
The next milestone in this evolving economic landscape will be the release of updated GDP projections in the next World Economic Outlook report.
