China’s electric vehicle market has swelled to more than 16 million annual sales, but the resulting wave of expired batteries is now testing the country’s formal recycling system, according to WIRED.
A Retirement Wave Hits China’s EV Boom
Annual sales of battery-powered vehicles in China — including fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids — surged from about 1 million in 2018 to more than 16 million in 2025, WIRED reported. With EV batteries typically lasting about eight years, the country is entering its first major wave of battery retirements. Governments largely chose to accelerate EV adoption anyway, betting that recycling systems would eventually catch up, according to the outlet.
China reported 400,000 metric tons of EV battery waste last year. A joint study by researchers in China and the United States projected that the figure could grow to 1.69 million metric tons in 2030 and 22.39 million metric tons by 2040.
| Metric | Amount | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Annual EV sales (BEV + plug-in hybrids) | About 1 million | 2018 |
| Annual EV sales | More than 16 million | 2025 |
| Reported battery waste | 400,000 metric tons | Last year |
| Projected battery waste | 1.69 million metric tons | 2030 |
| Projected battery waste | 22.39 million metric tons | 2040 |
| Certified annual processing capacity | 623,000 metric tons | 2023 |
| Retired batteries handled by certified firms | About 25% | 2023 |
Certified Capacity vs. Actual Recycling
China began developing a formal EV battery recycling system as early as 2018. More than 150 companies have since been placed on the government’s certification “white list,” authorizing them to process retired vehicle batteries, according to WIRED. By 2023, certified companies had a combined annual processing capacity of 623,000 metric tons — more than 1.5 times the volume of batteries retired that year. Yet they handled only about 25% of those batteries, WIRED reported.
The gap between official capacity and real-world operations is stark. An investigation published earlier this year by Yicai, a Chinese financial news outlet, attempted to contact every company on the white list and found that more than 100 were no longer operating or could not be reached. In the paper The Urgency to Regulate Informal EV Battery Recycling in China, researchers described China’s effort to control the informal market as a “losing battle.”
Uncertified Processors and Environmental Damage
Much of the country’s used-battery supply continues to flow through uncertified recyclers, which poses serious environmental and safety risks linked to contamination and improper disposal, WIRED reported. A case announced in Jiangxi Province in 2024 illustrated the danger: an uncertified company was found to have improperly dismantled 364 metric tons of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries. The resulting contamination caused vegetation to die across 6 acres of forest and killed more than 420 cubic feet of standing timber.
“There is poisoning, explosion, and fire caused by improper battery dismantling, waste water being dumped into rivers, contaminants being seeped into groundwater and polluting the soil,” Laixiang Sun, a professor at the University of Maryland and coauthor of the paper, told Inside Climate News.
Yan Wang, a professor of mechanical engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, added: “There is the lithium, copper, and nickel in the batteries. You cannot dump them into the environment.” Wang is also a cofounder of Ascend Elements, one of the largest battery recycling companies in the United States, and served as the company’s chief scientist from 2015 to 2022.
What the Recycling Gap Means for Global Supply Chains
Although recycling technology has improved, sustaining a profitable battery recycling business remains challenging, WIRED noted. A sprawling network of informal operators is undercutting certified recyclers in China and can pay more for used batteries. Because China leads the world in EV adoption, how Beijing manages both the risks and opportunities of battery retirement could help shape the industry’s global model.
For manufacturing executives, plant managers, and procurement directors tracking battery supply chains, the figures show that nominal recycling capacity and actual recovery volumes are not the same. China’s certified processors had enough capacity in 2023 to cover 1.5 times the year’s retirements, but only one in four tons of retired batteries reached them. The remaining flow through informal channels carries the contamination risks documented in Jiangxi — a factor OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers may need to weigh as they plan sourcing and end-of-life strategies.
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