India’s cardamom export pipeline is thinning as domestic prices surge, with the slowdown caused by the sharp rise in prices rather than any weakening in consumer consumption, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. The average market price is currently hovering between ₹3,000 and ₹3,300 per kg, compared with an earlier range of ₹2,700 to ₹2,900 per kg. That rally has triggered a decline in export enquiries, particularly from key overseas markets, even as long-term demand for premium Indian green cardamom remains strong.
Export enquiries fade as importers wait
SKM Dhanavanthan, a cardamom exporter based in Bodinayakanur, said importers are avoiding large inventories and instead opting for smaller, more frequent purchases while closely monitoring the progress of the monsoon and its impact on the upcoming crop. Buyers are waiting to assess whether favourable rainfall will improve production prospects and bring some correction or stability to prices before committing to larger volumes. Importers are currently adopting a cautious strategy, delaying fresh orders and restricting purchases until there is greater clarity on price trends and the size of the new crop.
SKM Dhanavanthan told BusinessLine:
We are clearly witnessing hesitation in price negotiations, with many buyers delaying purchases as they wait to understand whether the upcoming rains will influence market prices.
Price rally reshapes domestic buying
On the domestic front, higher prices have slowed bulk buying, while retail consumers are increasingly opting for smaller pack sizes, according to the report. The shift in purchasing behaviour mirrors the caution seen among overseas buyers.
| Indicator | Previous level | Current level |
|---|---|---|
| Average market price per kg | ₹2,700–₹2,900 | ₹3,000–₹3,300 |
| 2026-27 new crop projection | 40,000 tonnes | ~33,000 tonnes |
| Guatemala coming-season crop | 17,000 tonnes | 25,000–28,000 tonnes |
| Last season’s final crop (2025-26) | — | 37,733 tonnes |
Monsoon deficit dents new crop
S.B. Prabhakar, a cardamom planter in Idukki, said the picking season is starting but deficient monsoon in June and July dented new crop prospects. The absence of monsoon rains led to droppings and poor setting across growing areas. Losses seem to be around 20 to 25 per cent at the moment, which could increase if the sector receives deficient rains in August. Good copious monsoon rains over the last two days will ease the situation, but a dry period with high temperatures is predicted again from mid-August. Soil pests like Root Grub and Nematodes are rampant across plantations, leading to poor setting.
As the new crop season begins, the industry’s attention is shifting from auction centres to plantations. Weather conditions and rainfall over the coming weeks are expected to play a decisive role in determining crop prospects and overall market direction, making climate developments a far more significant factor than prices alone, Dhanavanthan said.
Deficit market keeps prices firm
The ensuing crop is now projected around 33,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 40,000 tonnes, Prabhakar said. The last season’s final crop (2025-26) was 37,733 tonnes. Upcountry demand is expected to pick up in August. However, the sector is staring at a big crisis like production drop and price rise, with El Nino already impacting the monsoon and a drought looming large in early 2027.
On the supply side, Guatemala’s crop is expected to increase to around 25,000 to 28,000 tonnes in the coming season from 17,000 tonnes in the last season. Despite the larger Guatemalan crop, the overall cardamom market is in deficit and is expected to keep prices firm in the short and medium term, Prabhakar said.
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