India’s corn exports are expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in the marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (ending October 2026), according to the USDA’s local office, as relatively weak domestic prices have spurred a surge in demand from neighbouring markets. The revised estimate more than doubles the USDA’s earlier projection of 1 million tonnes for the current marketing year.
Export surge driven by price competitiveness
The USDA Post reported that India’s corn exports in the first five months of MY 2025/26 (November 2025‑March 2026) reached 996,000 tonnes — more than triple the volume exported in the same period last year. Monthly shipments are averaging around 200,000 tonnes. “Relatively weak corn prices have resulted in resurgence in exports to neighbouring markets like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan on lower shipping costs and ease of sending smaller shipments,” the Post said. Trade sources expect continued steady exports for the remainder of the marketing year, assuming current price parity for Indian corn vis‑à‑vis corn from other origins in those destinations.
Record production and ample supplies
On the supply side, the third advance estimates place India’s maize production for 2025/26 at a record 55 million tonnes — an unprecedented 27% increase over the previous year. The strong upsurge is attributed to record planting and yields, largely owing to above‑normal monsoon last season and relatively firm prices in the previous marketing year. As of June 19, 2026, sowing of corn/maize in the current kharif season stood at 5.69 lakh hectares, marginally higher than the 5.34 lakh hectares sown a year earlier, despite delayed monsoon progress across central India. Last kharif, maize was planted in a record area of 98.61 lakh hectares.
Domestic prices remain under pressure
Maize prices have been on a downward trend, ruling below the government’s minimum support price (MSP) for several months. Average spot prices in major producing/consuming states in May 2026 ranged from ₹17,950 ($179) to ₹21,000 ($221) per metric tonne, with May 2026 average prices estimated 14% below last year and nearly 19% below the MSP. The government set the MSP for maize for 2026‑27 at ₹2,410 per quintal, up ₹10 from the previous year. Improved export demand in May helped lift prices slightly.
| Price metric | Value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 avg. spot price range (major states) | ₹17,950 – ₹21,000/mt ($179 – $221/mt) | 14% below year‑ago, ~19% below MSP |
| Government MSP for MY2026‑27 | ₹2,410/quintal | +₹10 vs previous year |
Outlook for MY2026/27
The USDA’s local office projects India’s corn production for MY2026/27 at 47 million tonnes, down from the current record. Consequently, exports in the following marketing year are forecast to ease to 1 million tonnes on relatively tighter domestic supplies and steady growth in domestic demand. Imports for MY2026/27 are projected at 1 lakh tonnes against 50,000 tonnes in the current year. “Exports prospects in MY 2026/2027 may weaken on forecast relatively tight domestic supplies and steady growth in domestic demand,” the Post noted.
Sources:
