Aided by a 35% surplus of rain in the first five days of this month, the coverage of India’s kharif season main cereal, paddy, narrowed its deficit to 13% as of July 5 against a shortfall of 25% until June 25, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. However, the overall acreage of all crops was still lower by 21% against the 23% gap as of June 25, indicating a slow recovery in sowing activities.
Acreage Trends and Rain Impact
The total kharif acreage reached 350.85 lakh hectares (lh) as of July 5, which is 32% of the season’s normal area of 1,104.46 lh and 21% less compared with 442.80 lh in the year-ago period, the data showed. After the revival of the monsoon from July 1, the overall rainfall deficiency, which was 39% in June, has now been reported at 20% during June 1-6, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. As central India and the north-west region have received good rains in the past few days, experts said sowing activities will get a boost and more coverage is expected in the next one week.
A comparison of major crop acreages as of July 5 versus the year-ago period is as follows:
| Crop | Acreage as of July 5 (lh) | Year-ago acreage (lh) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy | 60.24 | 69.30 | -13.1% |
| Pulses | 37.15 | 47.49 | -21.8% |
| Oilseeds | 66.31 | 109.27 | -39.3% |
| Nutri/coarse cereals | 60.12 | 71.86 | -16.3% |
| Cotton | 63.18 | 82.00 | -22.9% |
| Soybean | 47.80 | 79.20 | -39.6% |
| Groundnut | 16.93 | 28.00 | -39.5% |
| Sugarcane | 57.58 | 56.72 | +1.5% |
| Jute & mesta | 6.28 | 6.16 | +1.9% |
Among pulses, arhar (pigeon peas) sowing reached 12.35 lh, down from 21 lh; moong (green gram) stood at 16.81 lh from 17.20 lh; and urad (black matpe) at 3.01 lh from 4.63 lh. For coarse/nutri cereals, jowar area reached 4.53 lh against 4.89 lh a year ago, bajra dipped to 20.82 lh from 30 lh, ragi at 0.84 lh from 0.88 lh, and maize at 32.94 lh from 35 lh.
Government Production Targets
The government has fixed a production target of 176.16 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains for the kharif season of 2026, which includes 123.15 mt of rice, 8.4 mt of pulses, 31.04 mt of maize, and 13.56 mt of nutri cereals. Among oilseeds, the target is set at 28.92 mt, comprising 14.85 mt of soybean and 11.35 mt of groundnut. The current acreage gaps, particularly in oilseeds and pulses, pose a risk to achieving these targets if sowing does not improve in the coming weeks.
Monsoon Outlook and Sowing Prospects
The revival of the monsoon from July 1 has been a key factor in narrowing the acreage deficit. With the IMD reporting that central India and the north-west region have received good rains, experts anticipate accelerated sowing. The next week will be critical for crops like soybean, cotton, and pulses, which have shown the largest year-on-year declines. Continued surplus rainfall will be essential to close the remaining deficit and meet the government's production goals.
Sources:
