India's South-West monsoon delivered 1 per cent above-normal rainfall in July, but the July precipitation only partly offset June's 37 per cent deficit, and the seasonal monsoon remained 13 per cent deficient as of July 31, according to businessline. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall in August, and businessline reported that the non-linear spread of the rain could affect kharif crop prospects.
The non-linear spread of the rain could affect kharif crop prospects, businessline reported.
Deficient rainfall across 16 states
According to IMD data cited by businessline, 16 States that account for 36 per cent of India's geographical area have reported deficient rainfall as of July 31. The affected States include Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Bihar, which are key to kharif production. Haryana and Punjab have also received over 25 per cent deficient rain, but businessline noted both are well irrigated and could be bailed out. The linear distribution of rainfall has been lacking within States too, which will likely impact the crop situation during the kharif season.
District-level divergence in Maharashtra and Karnataka
Within Maharashtra, districts such as Nagpur, Satara, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sangli have received normal or excess rain, while Solapur, Latur, Nanded, Amravati, Gadchiroli and Chandrapur have received below-normal rain, according to businessline. Latur and Solapur hold the key to a good pigeon pea (arhar) crop. In Karnataka, Hasan, a key agrarian region, received 60 per cent below-normal rain, while Tumkur, Mandya and Dharwad recorded deficient rainfall. Raichur, Bidar and Belgaum received normal rainfall. Businessline reported a similar phenomenon in Gujarat, Andhra, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, all key contributors to agricultural production.
KS Hosalikar, former head of climate research and services at IMD Pune, wrote on X that one powerful spell of rainfall between July 30 and 31 changed the entire rainfall situation in 24 hours. Businessline added that with the system being active, other parts of the state could get rain.
Kharif sowing narrows the year-ago gap
According to the Agriculture Ministry, the area under all kharif crops was 787.37 lakh hectares (lh) as of July 24, about 5 per cent lower than 826.19 lh in the year-ago period, businessline reported. That is far better than the 21 per cent deficit recorded as of July 5.
| Metric | Reading | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| July rainfall | 1% above normal | Partial offset to June deficit |
| June rainfall | 37% deficient | Earlier month shortfall |
| Monsoon deficit as of July 31 | 13% | Against normal seasonal rain |
| States reporting deficient rainfall | 16 | 36% of India's geographical area |
| All-kharif area as of July 24 | 787.37 lakh hectares | 5% lower than 826.19 lh a year ago |
| Kharif area deficit as of July 5 | 21% | Year-ago gap before July catch-up |
Sowing has been affected in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Haryana, Bengal, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh. Rice, pulses, nutri-cereals and oilseed coverage have been affected in these States because of the uneven spread of the monsoon, businessline reported.
Farmers may turn to short-duration crops
Two farmers from Maharashtra, Shankarrao Narekar and Sandeep Shamrao Vinde, told businessline that the State received no rainfall until early July. With the monsoon making up some ground in July, farmers may opt for short-duration crops, which could be nutri-cereals, according to businessline.
August outlook and crop watch
The situation looks worrisome with IMD predicting below-normal rainfall in August, businessline reported. The 13 per cent seasonal deficit as of July 31, combined with the non-linear spread of rain and intra-State disparities, keeps kharif crop prospects under close watch. Businessline's report, published on July 31, noted that Haryana and Punjab remain relatively protected by irrigation, but the key kharif States of Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Bihar are still exposed to the uneven monsoon.
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