The 2026 southwest monsoon season in India has opened with a marked rainfall shortfall, raising concerns for the kharif harvest and rural economic activity, according to a research report by 360 ONE Capital Research. As of June 17, cumulative rainfall stood at 46.2 mm, compared with the normal 74.3 mm, a deficit of 38 per cent. Weekly rainfall for the period ending June 17 was 48 per cent below the long-period average, the report noted.
Monsoon Rainfall Deficit Widespread
The rainfall deficiency is broad-based: 22 of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions have received deficient rainfall so far. At the district level, nearly 66 per cent of the country has experienced scanty or deficient rainfall, underscoring the extensive nature of the shortfall, according to 360 ONE Capital Research. Central India has been particularly affected, recording a rainfall deficit of 62 per cent, while eastern India has seen rainfall 44 per cent below normal. The delayed progress of the monsoon has also begun to affect agricultural activity, the report added.
| Region | Rainfall Deficit vs Normal |
|---|---|
| All-India (cumulative to June 17) | 38% |
| Weekly (ending June 17) | 48% below LPA |
| Central India | 62% |
| Eastern India | 44% |
Kharif Sowing Declines, Pulses and Cotton Hit Hard
As of June 12, total kharif sowing was reported at 84.6 lakh hectares, down 3.9 per cent from the corresponding period last year, according to the report. Pulses and cotton have witnessed the sharpest declines, with sowing areas contracting by 43.2 per cent and 28 per cent respectively. Rice sowing, however, has shown resilience with a year-on-year increase of 28.4 per cent, albeit from a low base.
| Crop / Category | Sowing Area Change (YoY) |
|---|---|
| Total Kharif | -3.9% |
| Pulses | -43.2% |
| Cotton | -28.0% |
| Rice | +28.4% |
Reservoir Levels Provide a Buffer
Despite the weak monsoon momentum, sufficient reservoir levels remain a positive factor. 360 ONE Capital notes that live reservoir storage as of June 11 was equivalent to 28.3 per cent of total capacity, around 16 per cent above the 10-year average. This provides an important buffer for irrigation needs should rainfall remain uneven in the near term.
Outlook and Risks
360 ONE Capital Research stressed the need for close monitoring given the current pattern of monsoon. While the season has started significantly below normal, the ultimate impact will depend on rainfall distribution during the critical July-August period, which typically accounts for the bulk of India's seasonal precipitation. A recovery in rainfall could still support crop prospects, while a prolonged deficit may increase pressure on food prices and rural economic activity, the report warned.
For commodity traders and analysts, the evolving monsoon will be a key driver for kharif output estimates and price direction, particularly for pulses, cotton, and rice. The reservoir buffer offers some near-term insulation, but the next few weeks will determine whether the season recovers or deepens the deficit.
Sources:
