Crude oil prices fell below the $75-per-barrel mark on Wednesday as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, but are yet to return to the pre-conflict levels of $65-70 a barrel, according to a report in Business-Today. At the time of filing, Brent crude traded at nearly $73.4 per barrel, while the Indian oil basket — a blend of sweet-grade Brent dated and sour-grade Oman and Dubai average crude — was priced at $74.34 a barrel, less than half its peak level during the recent US-Iran conflict.
Price Context and Conflict Impact
Both Brent and the Indian oil basket averaged $65-70 per barrel in the run-up to the US-Iran conflict that broke out on February 28, Business-Today reported. At the peak of the conflict, Brent rose to nearly $114 a barrel, while the Indian basket touched $150 due to:
- A surge in West Asian crude prices
- Spot purchases by Indian refiners at high premiums
- Increased freight and insurance costs
The Indian crude basket composition shifted significantly after the conflict disrupted West Asia supplies. During 2025-26 through February, the basket consisted of 78.71% sour crude (Oman and Dubai average) and 21.21% Brent dated. In March, this shifted to 38.98% sour crude and 61.02% Brent dated as refiners diversified sourcing, according to the report.
Supply and Inventory Dynamics
Despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, S&P Global Energy said a full recovery in production and trade flows may take time. The energy research firm added that global oil inventories are expected to continue declining through June and July, potentially renewing upward pressure on prices, Business-Today reported.
A senior refinery executive (unnamed in the source) noted that Brent futures reflect crude deliveries over a longer timeframe, while the Indian oil basket captures the actual prices paid for cargo.
Price Outlook from Analysts
| Source | Outlook | Price Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility at S&P Global Energy | "Prices will stay volatile." | Brent may move from ~$76 to the $80-$90 range; could fall to $65 or rise to $100 depending on events |
| JP Morgan | Lowered its average Brent price outlook for the last two quarters | Brent to average $86 a barrel in Q3 2026 and $80 a barrel in Q4 2026 |
Business-Today reported these forecasts, noting that Brent was around $76 before the latest dip.
Implications for Traders and Procurement Teams
For commodity traders and raw material procurement teams, the current price environment below $75/barrel offers some relief from conflict highs, but the risk of renewed upward pressure remains. With global inventories declining through June and July and the Strait of Hormuz only recently reopened, supply chain stability is not yet assured. The shift in the Indian oil basket composition — with a much higher share of Brent dated — means Indian refiners are paying relatively more for sweet crude, which could impact refining margins and product pricing. Analysts suggest that any further disruption in the Middle East or unexpected demand spikes could quickly push Brent back above $80. Key data releases to watch include weekly US EIA inventory reports and monthly OPEC+ production figures.
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