Crude oil prices snapped a three-week rally last week, with international and domestic futures posting sharp losses, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Brent crude futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) settled at $87.90 per barrel after losing 9.1 per cent, while crude oil futures in the domestic market closed at ₹8,113 per barrel, down 5.7 per cent. The move began with a huge gap-down in Brent, and the analysis said the near-term direction is unclear.
Brent: gap-down and the $84.75 support
Brent crude futures opened last week with a huge gap-down and slipped further before finding some stability, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Even after stabilising, the contract was not able to see a rally as bears remained in control. The price is above a key support at $84.75, where both 21- and 50-day moving averages coincide. On the back of this support confluence, the report said a recovery is possible, potentially to $97 in the near term, and a breakout of $97 can lift prices to $100. Conversely, if the price drops from the current level of $87.90 and slips below $84.75, it can drop to $75.
| Metric | Brent (ICE) | MCX Crude (Aug) |
|---|---|---|
| Last price | $87.90 per barrel | ₹8,113 per barrel |
| Weekly change | -9.1% | -5.7% |
| Key support | $84.75 (21- & 50-day MA confluence) | ₹8,000 base / ₹7,500 support |
| Upside scenario | $97, then $100 | ₹9,000 |
| Downside trigger | Break below $84.75 targets $75 | Break below ₹7,500 targets ₹7,000, then ₹6,500 |
MCX crude: ₹8,000 base and ₹7,500 support
On the domestic exchange, crude oil futures for August delivery began last Monday's session with a gap-down, according to the report. The contract hit a low of ₹7,464 on Tuesday before recovering to ₹8,113. Despite last week's selling pressure, crude oil futures remain above the base at ₹8,000 and the support at ₹7,500, so the analysis said a rally is possible, potentially to ₹9,000. If the contract declines and breaches the support at ₹7,500, the outlook can turn bearish, leading to a fall to ₹7,000 and subsequently to ₹6,500.
Trade strategy and levels to watch
Given the uncertainty with respect to the upcoming trend, The Hindu BusinessLine advised staying out of fresh positions. For traders with high risk tolerance, the report suggested shorting crude oil futures if the contract breaks below ₹7,500, with a target of ₹6,500 and a stop-loss at ₹8,050.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the differing scenarios in the August 1, 2026 report underline why the direction is unclear: Brent is positioned for a possible recovery toward $97 or $100 as long as it holds above $84.75, while MCX crude points to ₹9,000 if the ₹7,500 support holds. A break of either support flips the setup to a bearish path, with $75 for Brent and ₹6,500 for domestic futures as the stated downside targets.
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