Oil prices rallied last week, but the market is now expected to move sideways, according to The Hindu BusinessLine's commodity analysis. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) settled at $88.50 per barrel, up 5.9 per cent, while crude oil futures in the domestic market ended at ₹7,810 per barrel, gaining 6.1 per cent.
Brent crude: $91 resistance caps the upside
Brent crude futures surpassed a hurdle at $86 early last week, but could not extend the upswing as it faced resistance at $91, The Hindu BusinessLine reported. This barrier appears well positioned and is likely to block the bulls in the short term. At the same time, the contract has support at $86 and $83. Hence, there is a good chance for the contract to consolidate between $83 and $91 in the near term, and the direction of the breach of this band will determine the next trend.
According to the report, a breakout of $91 can lift the contract to $98 and $100. Conversely, a breach of $83 can drag the contract to $78 and $75.
MCX crude: ₹8,000 resistance holds
In the domestic market, crude oil futures (September contract) rose above the resistance at ₹7,500 early last week and marked a high of ₹7,975 on Tuesday, according to the analysis. However, the resistance at ₹8,000 stood firm and did not allow the bulls to extend the uptick. The likelihood of a breakout of ₹8,000 is low this week, the report said. Also, a decline may not be seen since crude oil futures has a support band between ₹7,500 and ₹7,400.
Expected trading range
Given the prevailing price action, The Hindu BusinessLine expects crude oil futures to oscillate between ₹7,400 and ₹8,000 in the near term. A breakout of ₹8,000 can lead to a rally to ₹8,600, whereas if the support at ₹7,400 is invalidated, the price can fall to ₹7,000. On the international front, the consolidation range for Brent is $83–$91, with the next trend determined by a breach of either boundary.
| Contract | Exchange | Last Price | Weekly Change | Key Resistance | Key Support | Expected Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | ICE | $88.50/barrel | +5.9% | $91 | $86, $83 | $83–$91 |
| MCX crude futures (Sep) | MCX | ₹7,810/barrel | +6.1% | ₹8,000 | ₹7,500–₹7,400 | ₹7,400–₹8,000 |
Trade strategy: Stay out
The trade strategy outlined in the report is to stay out, since the contract can stay sideways. The analysis, authored by Akhil Nallamuthu and published on August 15, 2026, indicates that neither bulls nor bears have a clear edge until the range boundaries are broken.
The report also notes that the likelihood of a breakout of ₹8,000 is low this week, reinforcing the expectation of near-term sideways trading. Market participants will be watching for any move beyond the $91 and ₹8,000 ceilings, or the $83 and ₹7,400 floors, to trigger the next directional phase.
For traders tracking crude oil, the actionable levels are clear: a sustained move above $91 on Brent or ₹8,000 on MCX would open the upside targets of $98–$100 and ₹8,600 respectively, while a break below $83 or ₹7,400 would expose $78–$75 and ₹7,000, according to the report. Until such a breakout or breakdown occurs, the sideways movement suggests limited directional opportunity, and the report's recommendation to remain on the sidelines is consistent with the neutral technical setup.
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