Crude oil prices edged lower on Friday as concerns over supply disruptions eased with more oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 7 am IST, Brent crude was trading at $74.95 a barrel, down 31 cents or 0.41%, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 32 cents, or 0.44%, to $71.60 a barrel, according to Business-Today.
Geopolitical Drivers Ease but Tensions Persist
The decline came despite fresh tensions in the region. Earlier on Thursday, oil prices had jumped more than 2% after a cargo ship near Oman was hit by an unidentified projectile. Following the incident, the United Nations' shipping agency suspended its voluntary evacuation programme, Business-Today reported. Two US officials told Reuters that Iran fired at the vessel as it tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities said the safety of ships travelling outside designated routes in the strait could not be guaranteed.
"With the geopolitical risk premium once again creeping back into prices, markets will be watching intently to see if tanker traffic resumes or if these latest hurdles force producers to tap the brakes on planned production increases," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Despite the Thursday gains, both Brent and WTI crude are on track to post weekly losses of about 7%.
Tanker Traffic Recovery
Data released on Thursday showed that crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose this week to their highest level since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February. The increase followed a ceasefire agreement that reopened the key shipping route. However, traffic through the strait remains much lower than normal. Before the conflict began on February 28, around 125 ships passed through the waterway every day.
Venezuela Supply Concerns
Earthquakes in Venezuela also raised concerns about oil supplies. Initial inspections showed limited damage to the country's oil and gas infrastructure, as major production regions, refineries, pipelines and terminals were located away from the worst-hit areas. However, sources said power outages could affect Venezuela's ability to maintain oil production at its pre-earthquake level of nearly 1.2 million barrels per day.
Price Context and Weekly Performance
Since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, oil prices have continued to skyrocket, even breaching the $126 per barrel mark. Now, as the two countries have reached a peace conclusion, prices have soothed, falling to lowest levels in the past four months, near pre-war levels.
| Benchmark | Current Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | $74.95/barrel | -0.41% | ~ -7% |
| WTI Crude | $71.60/barrel | -0.44% | ~ -7% |
Outlook for Commodity Traders
With the geopolitical risk premium still present, traders are monitoring tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz closely. If shipments continue to rise, further downside pressure on oil prices is possible. However, any new disruptions—such as further attacks or Venezuelan output declines—could reverse the recent easing. Upcoming EIA inventory data and OPEC+ decisions will be key to watch.
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