Crude oil futures traded higher on Friday morning, buoyed by cautious optimism surrounding US-Iran peace talks ahead of the long holiday weekend in the United States, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.
Price Action
At 10.08 am on Friday, September Brent oil futures on ICE were at $72.29, up by 0.68%, while August crude oil futures on NYMEX (WTI) were at $69.06, up by 0.54%, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), July crude oil futures traded at ₹6600 against the previous close of ₹6540, gaining 0.92%, and August futures were at ₹6626 against ₹6565, up 0.93%.
Fundamental Driver: US-Iran Peace Efforts
Earlier this week, negotiators from the US and Iran held indirect talks in Doha. However, these indirect talks concluded without reaching an agreement, The Hindu BusinessLine reported. Despite the lack of a deal, markets remained cautiously hopeful about the peace process.
Supply Side Intelligence
The oil market is on course for its fourth consecutive week of declines as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to normalise, according to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy of ING Think, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist. In their Commodities Feed for Friday, they noted that the increase in oil flows is putting growing pressure on the front end of the ICE Brent forward curve, which is increasingly moving into contango — a sign of an oversupplied prompt market. The return of this supply coincides with continued releases from strategic petroleum reserves. They added:
Yet, with the flat price falling and the forward curve moving into contango, we could start to see more buying in the market.
A Reuters report cited by The Hindu BusinessLine highlighted that Kuwait's oil production rose sharply to 1.65 million barrels per day in June from 580,000 barrels per day in May, as it boosted exports following the US-Iran interim peace agreement. It also said that at least five super-tankers carrying a total of 10 million barrels of Saudi oil have exited the Strait of Hormuz. Market reports added that the UAE has restored its oil exports to pre-war levels, using both the Strait of Hormuz and an oil supply pipeline to improve its exports.
| Commodity | Contract | Price | Change vs Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude (ICE) | Sep 2026 | $72.29 | +0.68% |
| WTI crude (NYMEX) | Aug 2026 | $69.06 | +0.54% |
| MCX crude oil | July 2026 | ₹6600 | +0.92% |
| MCX crude oil | Aug 2026 | ₹6626 | +0.93% |
| MCX aluminium | July 2026 | ₹331.65 | +1.05% |
| NCDEX Mumbai rainfall | July 2026 | ₹2345 | +0.73% |
| NCDEX cottonseed oilcake | July 2026 | ₹3650 | -0.38% |
Demand Side and Other Commodities
On the demand side, the report did not provide specific consumption data, but the contango structure suggests prompt oversupply. Meanwhile, other commodities on Indian exchanges showed mixed movements: July aluminium futures on MCX were at ₹331.65, up 1.05% from the previous close of ₹328.20. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), July Mumbai rainfall contracts traded at ₹2345, up 0.73% from ₹2328, while July cottonseed oilcake futures were at ₹3650, down 0.38% from ₹3664.
Price Outlook
The combination of normalising Strait of Hormuz flows, increased Kuwaiti production, and continued SPR releases points to a well-supplied market in the near term. However, the move into contango may attract buying interest, as ING Think suggested. Key upcoming data releases include weekly US EIA inventory reports and any further developments from US-Iran negotiations. The market will also watch for OPEC+ compliance rates and IEA projections, although these were not detailed in the source.
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