Gold prices edged higher on Monday, July 27, but remained range-bound as a sharp decline in oil prices was partially reversed amid geopolitical tensions, according to Business-Today. Spot gold traded with a gain of 0.20% at $4065, after hitting an intra-day high of $4116. The metal closed the week ending July 24 with a weekly gain of 0.90% at $4054.
Weekly Performance and Key Data
Business-Today reported that US durable goods orders for June came in at 0.3% versus the estimate of 1.8%, though core durable capital goods orders increased 0.9% after an upwardly revised 1.9% gain in May. The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for July was 1.3, below the estimate of 2. In Europe, Germany's business climate index rose for the third straight month to 86.6 in July, beating the estimate of 86 (prior 85.7), signaling stabilization in the German economy.
Dollar, Yields, and Fed Rate Hike Odds
The US Dollar Index gained 0.70% in the week ending July 24 to close at 101.46, and was trading largely flat on Monday, according to Business-Today. Two-year US yields were steady at 4.32%, while ten-year yields eased 2 basis points to 4.65%. Last week, two-year yields rose to 4.36%—the highest since February 2025—before retreating to close at 4.32%, up 3.83% for the week. Ten-year yields hit 4.71%—the highest since January 2025—and settled with a weekly gain of 3% at 4.67%.
Overnight implied rates reflect the Federal Reserve hiking rates 1.09 times by September, with the next hike possible as soon as March 2027. Business-Today noted that probabilities of a US Fed rate hike in September, October, and December are 81%, 86%, and 91%, respectively.
| Indicator | Value | Estimate/Prior |
|---|---|---|
| US Durable Goods Orders (June) | 0.3% | 1.8% estimate, -4% prior |
| Core Durable Capital Goods (June) | 0.9% | Upwardly revised 1.9% prior |
| Dallas Fed Mfg (July) | 1.3 | 2 estimate |
| Germany Business Climate (July) | 86.6 | 86 estimate, 85.7 prior |
| Dollar Index (week ending July 24) | 101.46 | +0.70% for week |
| 2-Year Yield (close July 24) | 4.32% | Weekly +3.83% |
| 10-Year Yield (close July 24) | 4.67% | Weekly +3% |
CFTC Positioning Turns Bullish
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week ending July 21 showed money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 4,439 net-long positions to 123,586—the most bullish in about six months, according to Business-Today. Long-only positions rose by 4,450 lots to 141,060, also the highest in six months, while short-only positions increased by 11 lots to 17,474.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Price Volatility
Oil prices tumbled on Monday following a pause in US strikes on Iran. The US carried out no strikes on Iran for the third consecutive night as President Donald Trump allows space for peace talks. However, over the weekend, Yemen's Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Saudi energy infrastructure. State media reported Saudi Arabia retaliated by targeting Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen. The Houthis claimed on Monday they targeted Saudi oil facilities with drones, though did not specify when. Additionally, a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea drew Iran's ire. Business-Today reported that at the time of writing, Brent crude oil was at $90, down over 6% for the day, with a net decline of $11 since Thursday's high. Brent futures had surged nearly 9% last week.
Trade Tariffs Add to Uncertainty
President Trump's administration, citing forced labour, imposed tariffs of 10–12.5% on 60 trading partners, including the EU and China, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as temporary 10% global tariffs expired. Additional tariffs are possible on excess capacity, Business-Today noted.
ETF and Central Bank Activity
Total known global ETF holdings rose for the third straight day to 96.65 million ounces on July 24. However, Business-Today reported a net outflow of 2.27 million ounces (2.3%) year-to-date, and outflows since the start of the Iran war on February 28 stand at 4.25 million ounces (4.23%). The central bank section of the source was truncated but indicated European Central Bank actions were anticipated.
Outlook: Range-Bound with Downside Risks
Praveen Singh, Head of Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, told Business-Today: "Gold prices are rising but are still not out of the woods." The upside in gold is likely to be capped as the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy decision looms. With strong Fed rate hike probabilities and a resilient dollar, gold may remain range-bound around current levels in the near term. Traders will watch for further US economic data, progress in US-Iran peace talks, and any escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure.
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