Gold prices continued their downward trajectory this week, declining 1.3% for a second consecutive week, as renewed geopolitical tensions and rising US real yields weighed on sentiment, according to Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, firmer crude oil prices, and a stronger US dollar reinforced inflation concerns, prompting markets to price in a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve. Bullion is currently trading near $4,000/oz, with spot gold at $4,030/oz.
Price Performance and Key Drivers
Rising 10-year US real Treasury yields—now at their highest level since April 2025—have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, leaving bullion vulnerable. A softer-than-expected US CPI report briefly lifted gold by easing rate hike expectations and pulling yields and the dollar lower, but the rebound was short-lived. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to restoring price stability, signaling that policy decisions will not hinge on a single inflation print, Narvekar noted.
The immediate focus shifts to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) , which will provide fresh clues on pipeline inflation and the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure. Markets will also monitor Retail Sales, weekly jobless claims, housing data, speeches from Fed officials, and movements in Treasury yields, the US dollar, and crude oil prices. Any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict will remain an important driver of both inflation expectations and safe-haven demand, the analyst added.
Technical Levels & Near-Term Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, gold is expected to remain supported as softer-than-expected US inflation has eased immediate expectations of further Fed tightening, increasing the likelihood of a more data-dependent policy stance. However, the upside could remain constrained by elevated US real Treasury yields, a relatively firm US dollar, and the Fed's continued hawkish messaging.
| Metal | Current Market Price | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Spot) | $4,030/oz | $3,950 / $3,850 | $4,120 / $4,220 |
| Gold (MCX) | ₹1,38,500 | ₹1,35,300 | ₹1,44,800 / ₹1,48,300 |
| Silver (International) | $58.50/oz | $56.50 / $54.50 | $62 / $65 |
| Silver (MCX) | ₹2,15,500 | ₹2,07,800 | ₹2,36,500 / ₹2,47,900 |
From a technical perspective, gold would maintain its consolidation range of $3,950–$4,200. Immediate resistance is seen at $4,100–$4,120, with a decisive break above $4,220 potentially opening the way towards $4,320–$4,350. On the downside, failure to hold $4,000 could trigger a corrective move towards $3,950, followed by $3,800.
Silver: Near-Term Drag, Long-Term Support
Silver is trading near $58.50/oz after declining about 52% from its all-time high of $121.62 set on January 29, and 18% from its 2025 close, largely due to a stronger US dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and hawkish Fed expectations rather than any deterioration in market fundamentals, according to Narvekar.
The long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by a projected sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, as most silver production is a byproduct of other metals and cannot be rapidly increased. In the near term, prices are likely to remain range-bound, with macroeconomic data, Fed policy signals, and US dollar movements driving direction, while persistent supply tightness provides a supportive medium-term backdrop.
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and central bank gold purchases are likely to underpin safe-haven demand and provide medium-term support for gold as well. Markets will closely track upcoming US PPI, retail sales, labor market data, and comments from Fed officials for further direction on interest rate expectations.
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