Gold prices, as measured by MCX Gold August futures, continue to maintain a positive undertone, trading near Rs 1,45,350 after extending gains from the recent corrective phase, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities. The overall technical structure indicates that the recent recovery is backed by improving momentum indicators and sustained buying interest above key moving averages, Trivedi noted, favouring a buy-on-dips strategy.
Technical Indicators Support Bullish Bias
The moving average alignment confirms strong short-term momentum. The 8-period EMA continues to trade above the 21-period EMA, with a widening gap reflecting strengthening buying momentum. As long as prices hold above both moving averages, the probability of further upside remains favourable, according to Trivedi.
Bollinger Bands also support the bullish outlook. Gold is currently trading close to the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting sustained buying pressure. While minor profit booking may occur after the recent rally, any retracement towards the middle Bollinger Band is expected to provide a fresh buying opportunity. A decisive breakout above the recent swing high could trigger another round of momentum buying.
The previous day's Pivot Point analysis strengthens the positive bias. Gold is trading comfortably above the pivot support and the Central Pivot Range (CPR), indicating that buyers continue to dominate the market. Holding above these support levels keeps the short-term trend intact and increases the possibility of prices testing higher resistance zones.
Momentum oscillators continue to favour the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is hovering around 66, reflecting healthy bullish momentum without entering extreme overbought territory, suggesting room for additional upside. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above the signal line with positive histogram bars, confirming that upside momentum continues to strengthen, according to Trivedi.
Intraday Trading Strategy
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Strategy | Buy on Dips |
| Entry Zone | Rs 1,45,200 – Rs 1,45,400 |
| Stop-Loss | Below Rs 1,44,000 |
| Target 1 | Rs 1,46,200 |
| Target 2 | Rs 1,46,700 |
Traders may adopt a buy-on-dips strategy in the Rs 1,45,200–Rs 1,45,400 zone with a protective stop-loss below Rs 1,44,000, according to Trivedi. The first target is Rs 1,46,200 and the second is Rs 1,46,700 during the intraday session.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The overall technical outlook for MCX Gold remains constructive as price action continues to form a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The bullish alignment of the EMAs, positive MACD crossover, supportive RSI reading, and sustained trade above the previous day's pivot levels indicate that the broader trend remains upward. While intermittent profit booking cannot be ruled out due to the recent advance, the overall structure favours buying on declines rather than chasing prices at higher levels. Crucial support is identified at Rs 1,44,000; as long as Gold sustains above this level, traders should maintain a positive bias.
Price Outlook
A sustained move above Rs 1,45,500 is likely to encourage fresh buying interest and could drive prices towards the Rs 1,46,200–Rs 1,46,700 zone during the intraday session, according to Trivedi. The positive technical setup, with the 8-period EMA above the 21-period EMA and the RSI at 66, supports further upside potential. Traders and analysts tracking precious metals should monitor the key support at Rs 1,44,000 and resistance near Rs 1,46,700 for breakout confirmation. The buy-on-dips strategy remains in play as long as the uptrend structure holds.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts and analysts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
Sources:
