Gold prices are trading with a bearish near-term bias, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, as quoted in a Business-Today report. The metal has slipped below the 20-day Bollinger Band average, with lower highs and lower lows indicating seller dominance. However, prices are approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which could trigger a short-covering bounce. A key support zone lies at Rs 142,800–143,200.
Technical Outlook
From a Bollinger Bands perspective, the middle band (20 SMA) is at Rs 149,787, the upper band at Rs 158,450, and the lower band at Rs 141,125, according to the report. As long as prices remain below the middle band, the near-term bias remains negative. A sustained move above Rs 149,800 is needed to improve sentiment, while a close below the lower band could accelerate downside.
Fibonacci retracement levels also highlight crucial zones:
| Level | Price (Rs) | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% retracement | 151,000 | First major resistance |
| 38.2% retracement | 140,500 | Strong support (near lower Bollinger Band) |
| 50% retracement | 132,000 | Next major long-term support |
For the week ahead, immediate support is at Rs 142,800–143,200, followed by Rs 141,125 (lower Bollinger Band), and then Rs 140,500 (38.2% Fibonacci). On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 145,500, followed by the key 20-day moving average at Rs 149,800. A sustained move above this level could open the door towards Rs 151,000–152,000, while Rs 158,450 remains the major resistance at the upper Bollinger Band. The overall technical outlook is bearish to neutral, the report states.
Fundamental Drivers
Gold continues to trade under short-term bearish pressure, though safe-haven demand has resurfaced following renewed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and fresh exchanges between the US and Iran, according to Business-Today. However, gains are capped by a stronger US dollar and elevated US Treasury yields. The latest US core PCE inflation data remained broadly in line with expectations but rose to its highest annual pace since October 2023, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains persistent. This has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, with markets pricing in the possibility of another rate hike by the end of 2026, limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Upcoming Data Releases
Investors will closely monitor this week’s US economic data, including US consumer confidence, ADP employment, jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls, the report notes. These releases are likely to shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar, and the next directional move in gold. The critical support zone at Rs 141,000–140,500 will be key to watch this week. Holding above this region could lead to a recovery towards Rs 149,800, whereas a breakdown below it may strengthen bearish momentum and extend the decline towards Rs 136,000–137,000.
Sources:
