Gold and silver prices are expected to remain range-bound in the coming week as market participants track major central bank meetings, developments in US-Iran negotiations, and movements in crude oil prices, according to analysts quoted by PTI.
Central Bank Meetings Under the Microscope
Market participants will closely monitor policy decisions by the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England, along with inflation readings from the UK, Eurozone, Germany, and Japan for clues on the global interest-rate outlook, the analysts said. The fate of the proposed US-Iran agreement will remain one of the most important drivers for bullion markets, according to Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, as quoted by PTI.
"A close eye will remain on the finalisation of the US-Iran deal. If signed, then we may see an extended rally in risk assets that may lift gold and silver as well. However, any escalation would be negative for markets," Mer said.
Domestic Price Action: Sharp Weekly Declines
On the domestic front, gold futures for August delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined Rs 5,066, or 3.2%, during the week to settle at around Rs 1.50 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures for July delivery fell Rs 2,351, or nearly 1%, to Rs 2.46 lakh per kilogram.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, noted: "Gold prices declined sharply, falling more than 3% and testing the Rs 1,48,000 per 10 gram level on the MCX." According to Trivedi, bullion remained volatile during the week as easing concerns in energy markets and uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations weighed on prices. However, sentiment improved later after reports suggested there would be no immediate military action against Iran, prompting safe-haven buying and helping precious metals recover part of their losses.
International Markets and the US-Iran Factor
In international markets, Comex gold futures declined USD 126.5, or nearly 3%, during the week to close at USD 4,238.8 per ounce. Silver fell USD 1.13, or 1.6%, to USD 67.97 per ounce.
Pranav Mer said gold recovered some losses towards the end of the week, with prices rebounding more than 5% after the US dollar weakened and bond yields fell amid reports that a US-Iran peace agreement could be signed soon. However, he cautioned that uncertainty would persist until both sides formally sign the agreement.
Continued liquidation by exchange traded fund (ETF) investors and expectations of a higher interest-rate environment at least through the first half of 2027 also weighed on bullion prices, Mer added.
| Commodity | Exchange | Weekly Change | Settlement Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Aug) | MCX | -Rs 5,066 (-3.2%) | ~Rs 1,50,000/10g |
| Silver (Jul) | MCX | -Rs 2,351 (~-1%) | Rs 2.46 lakh/kg |
| Gold | Comex | -$126.5 (~-3%) | $4,238.8/oz |
| Silver | Comex | -$1.13 (-1.6%) | $67.97/oz |
Outlook and Key Data Releases
Analysts said investors will also track the G7 Summit in France, where leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to discuss the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, for further signals on the near-term direction of precious metals. The combination of central bank decisions, the US-Iran deal outcome, and crude oil price trends will remain the primary drivers for gold and silver in the sessions ahead.
For commodity traders and analysts, the key data releases this week include inflation readings from the UK, Eurozone, Germany, and Japan, as well as policy statements from the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England. Any shift in interest rate expectations or geopolitical tensions could trigger significant price moves in bullion markets.
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