Gold and silver futures are expected to trade in a narrow range this week as bullion investors await US employment data and Federal Reserve policy signals, according to Business-Today. Both precious metals ended the previous week lower on Indian and international exchanges, with MCX gold slipping just over 1% and Comex silver losing nearly 2%.
Last week's price action
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), August gold futures fell Rs 1,595, or 1.1%, to close at Rs 1.41 lakh per 10 grams, Business-Today reported. September silver futures dropped Rs 4,940, or 2.2%, to settle at Rs 2.17 lakh per kilogram. Internationally, Comex gold futures for October delivery ended marginally lower at $4,076.6 per ounce, while September silver futures fell nearly 2% over the week to close at $57.78 per ounce in New York.
| Contract | Exchange | Weekly change | % change | Closing price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August gold futures | MCX | -Rs 1,595 | -1.1% | Rs 1.41 lakh per 10 grams |
| September silver futures | MCX | -Rs 4,940 | -2.2% | Rs 2.17 lakh per kg |
| October gold futures | Comex | marginally lower | n/a | $4,076.6 per ounce |
| September silver futures | Comex | fell nearly 2% | ~2% | $57.78 per ounce |
What pushed bullion lower
Gold remained volatile and ended the week on a weaker note, with MCX gold declining a little over 1% as prices continued to consolidate within a broad trading range, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, told PTI. Trivedi added that gold failed to attract significant buying despite a weaker US dollar and a sharp fall in crude oil prices, showing that investors remained cautious.
MCX gold to trade in the Rs 1.40-1.44 lakh per 10 grams range in the near-term, with the directional move hinging on US macroeconomic data and evolving expectations around the Fed's policy path.
Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook continued to weigh on bullion prices, as policymakers have not given a clear timeline for future policy moves, according to Trivedi.
Data and events on the radar
According to Business-Today, the market will track the following data points and events this week:
- July US employment data, including non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate
- Purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from the US, the UK, the Eurozone and Japan
- Speeches by Federal Reserve officials Lisa D Cook and Thomas Barkin
- China's trade data, including exports, imports, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)
Developments related to the US-Iran conflict and the stability of crude oil supplies through key shipping routes will also influence market sentiment, according to the report.
Outlook for this week
With gold expected to remain within a limited range in the near term, the directional move hinges on US macroeconomic data and evolving expectations around the Fed's policy path, Business-Today reported. The release of US non-farm payrolls will be the key catalyst for bullion traders, with any surprise in employment figures likely to affect expectations for the Fed's next interest rate move. Alongside the jobs report, PMI readings from major economies and China's trade and inflation data will provide additional signals for gold and silver prices through the week. Business-Today reported that the non-farm payrolls report is the key economic data point investors are awaiting this week for clues on the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move, and Trivedi's near-term range for MCX gold remains Rs 1.40-1.44 lakh per 10 grams.
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