India will require roughly 500,000 tonnes of additional refined copper capacity every five years to keep pace with rising demand of the metal, according to International Copper Association India (ICA India) Managing Director Mayur Karmarkar. Speaking on the outlook for the ongoing financial year, Karmarkar said copper demand is likely to track overall GDP growth and the association is anticipating at least around 9 per cent growth over 2026.
Demand growth accelerates in FY25
India's copper demand growth accelerated to 9.3 per cent in FY25, reaching 1,878 kilo tonnes (KT) compared to 1,718 KT in FY24, according to annual demand data from ICA India. The growth was driven by robust economic progress and increasing adoption of copper across critical sectors.
| Metric | FY24 | FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper demand (KT) | 1,718 | 1,878 | +9.3% |
Sectoral breakdown of demand
Key sectors driving copper demand growth in FY25, as per ICA India's data analysis, include:
- Building construction: registered 11 per cent year-on-year growth, remaining a primary growth driver.
- Infrastructure: posted 17 per cent year-on-year growth, the strongest among all segments.
- Renewable energy: achieved one of the highest annual capacity additions in FY25.
- Consumer durables: saw a double-digit percentage increase, driven by strong sales of air conditioners, fans, refrigerators, and washing machines.
Supply side capacity additions
On the supply side, Karmarkar noted that restarting a secondary smelter of Hindustan Copper and a new secondary smelter of Hindalco will add a combined capacity of 100,000 tonnes. However, this is small against the total demand of about 1.8 million tonnes. "It will help a bit, but the scale is relatively small," Karmarkar added.
Domestic cathode availability will further improve as smelter-refinery capacities expand. Karmarkar said: "Hindalco is putting up an expansion plant, and Kutch Copper's capacity is also coming on stream. These projects will make more cathode available in the country for domestic conversion."
Despite these investments, he warned that domestic refined copper production will remain insufficient.
"If you really see the demand trajectory versus supply in the long term, will require almost like another 500,000 tonnes capacity every five years to meet the growing demand." — Mayur Karmarkar, Managing Director, ICA India
Implications for market participants
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the growing demand-supply gap in India's copper market signals a structural deficit that will likely require increased imports or accelerated domestic investment. With demand growing at 9%+ annually and only modest capacity additions in the pipeline, domestic refined copper availability is expected to tighten, influencing sourcing strategies and forward pricing. Karmarkar underscored that under the current growth scenario, supply will need to chase demand, highlighting the urgency for further capacity additions and investment in refining and smelting facilities.
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