The initial monsoon surge along India’s west coast appears to have exhausted itself, but a fresh pulse is expected to revive heavy rainfall around June 22-23. According to guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the next monsoon phase will begin with heavy rain over Coastal Karnataka and Goa, then spread northward across Konkan, Mumbai, and south Gujarat up to Surat.
Monsoon Vigour Shifts to the Bay of Bengal
While the west coast witnessed an extended onset phase that has since eased, the monsoon remains active over the Bay of Bengal. Stronger south-westerly flows and expanding cloud bands have developed over the west, west-central, and southern Bay off Tamil Nadu, concentrated around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. On Thursday morning, the most intense thunderstorms were confined to the Mangaluru-Kannur belt along the Karnataka-Kerala coast, with rain and thundershowers also active from Thrissur southward to Thiruvananthapuram and further east to Nagercoil in Tamil Nadu, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Eastern India to Receive Widespread Rain
Over north-west India, a trough lay extended from Punjab across Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand to the plains of West Bengal. The trough is expected to draw moisture inland from the Bay, turning south-westerly winds into south-easterlies over adjoining eastern India and triggering rain and thundershowers. Meanwhile, a western disturbance entered north-west India on Thursday morning, stretching from Jaisalmer in west Rajasthan towards north and west Gujarat. IMD noted that cooler westerly winds associated with this system are expected to interact with the prevailing heat, triggering thunderstorms across parts of north-west and east India.
Isolated Heavy Rainfall Warnings
IMD has issued specific forecasts for isolated heavy rainfall:
| Region | Timing | Intensity |
|---|---|---|
| Andaman & Nicobar Islands | Thursday | Isolated heavy rain |
| Plains of West Bengal | Thursday | Isolated heavy rain |
| Hills of West Bengal & Sikkim | Friday onwards for 5 days | Isolated heavy to very heavy rain |
| Jharkhand, Odisha, Bihar | Next 2 days | Isolated heavy rain |
| Odisha | Thursday | Isolated very heavy rain |
Additionally, thunder squalls with wind speeds of 50-60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr, are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, plains of West Bengal, and Odisha on Thursday, and over Jharkhand and Bihar during the next two days. Another spell of squally weather is forecast over these regions from Monday.
Extended Widespread Rainfall Outlook
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over:
- The Andaman and Nicobar Islands and hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days
- The plains of West Bengal and Jharkhand during the next two days
- Odisha on Friday
Isolated to scattered rainfall will occur over the plains of West Bengal for four days; Jharkhand for three days from Sunday; Bihar for five days from Friday; and Odisha for four days from Saturday. Thunderstorm, lightning, and gusty winds are expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West Bengal, Odisha, and hills of West Bengal and Sikkim throughout the period, extending to Jharkhand from Saturday and Bihar over the weekend, according to IMD.
Implications for Commodity Traders
While the source article does not provide direct commodity price data, the revival of monsoon rains along the west coast—especially in key agricultural states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Gujarat—is critical for kharif crop sowing and water reservoir levels. Traders tracking rainfall patterns can expect updates on planting progress for crops such as sugarcane, cotton, and coarse grains. The extended wet spell over eastern India, including Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar, also supports rice cultivation in these regions. Any deviation from the forecast could influence supply expectations and market sentiment for Indian agricultural commodities.
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