China's exports surged 27% year-on-year in June, far exceeding economists' expectations, driven by booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products and semiconductors, according to customs data released Tuesday. The growth marked a sharp acceleration from the 19.4% expansion recorded in May.
Export Surge Driven by AI and Semiconductor Demand
Analysts attributed the strong performance to soaring semiconductor prices and robust global demand for AI-related products. Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, said via AP: "Trade values took another big leg up in June. This predominantly reflects the recent surge in semiconductor prices on the back of the AI boom. But even putting that aside, foreign demand for Chinese goods remains robust."
China has also seen strong growth in exports of electric vehicles (EVs), automobiles, and technology products as rapid AI adoption increases global demand for chips and electronic equipment.
Import Growth and Trade Surplus
Imports rose 36% in June, up from 27.4% in May, with analysts noting that higher import costs during the Iran conflict contributed to the increase. As a result, China's trade surplus widened to $125.6 billion in June, compared with $105.4 billion in May.
For the first half of 2026, China's exports increased 17.6% and imports rose 26.6% year-on-year.
Regional Export Performance
Exports to key regions showed strong growth in June:
| Region | Export Growth (YoY) |
|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | Nearly 35% |
| European Union | More than 18% |
| Latin America | More than 28% |
| United States | Nearly 14% |
Analysts said the increase in U.S.-bound shipments partly reflects a rebound from last year's weaker performance after higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. To avoid tariffs, many Chinese manufacturers have shifted production to other regions, while exports to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America have continued to expand.
Outlook and Risks
Wei Li, Head of Multi-Asset Investments at BNP Paribas Securities (China), said export growth is likely to continue but faces increasing risks. He noted that strong shipments of automobiles and AI-related products remain dependent on global demand and evolving regulatory barriers.
The robust export performance has helped cushion China's economy against weak domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector downturn. China is scheduled to release its April-June GDP data on Wednesday. The government has set an annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, slightly lower than the 5% recorded last year. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2026 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, but expects growth to slow to 4.1% in 2027.
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