India's non-basmati rice exports value fell over 10% in the 2025-26 financial year (FY26) to $5.86 billion, even as volumes rose 6.5% to a little over 15 million tonnes, according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). The drop was driven by a slack performance in the African region, which faced foreign exchange shortages, policy uncertainty, and stronger competition from Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Regional Performance and African Hurdles
Shipments were particularly lower to West Africa, Central Africa, and the ASEAN region, while they increased to South Asia, East Africa, West Asia, and other South African countries. "A combination of factors was behind the slack shipments to the African region," said New Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain. He cited India's policy uncertainty, foreign exchange shortages in African countries, stronger competition, freight disruption, and weaker buyer sentiments due to huge inventories.
S Chandrasekaran, a New Delhi-based trade analyst, noted that some African countries had bought huge quantities of rice during 2024-25 after India lifted the ban on rice exports in 2024, and were holding those stocks last fiscal. India had curbed rice exports from 2022 after unseasonal rains and El Nino affected paddy production.
Factors Behind the Decline
| Factor | Details |
|---|---|
| Forex shortages | Countries like Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin faced severe US dollar shortages; some buyers sought trade in local currencies, which Indian exporters rejected. |
| Competition | Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan offered cheaper origins; Thai and Vietnamese currencies weakened, and Pakistan priced aggressively. |
| Demand slump | Delays in contracts and reduction in fresh purchase orders hurt exports. |
| Market share loss | During the export curb (2022-2024), African countries signed long-term contracts with alternative suppliers, locking India out. |
"Delays in contracts and reduction in fresh purchase orders hurt Indian exports," said Jain.
Price Competitiveness and Market Dynamics
Despite rice prices in the global market rebounding to a two-year high, India remains the most competitive. For 5% broken rice, India's price at $350 per tonne is at least $40 lower than Pakistan, $60 lower than Vietnam, and $145 lower than Thailand. For parboiled rice, India's $338 per tonne is far lower than Pakistan's $391 and Thailand's $511. However, Jain noted, "Indian rice prices have not picked up as other competitors." An industry source, speaking anonymously, said competition within India is "cut-throat" and exporters undermine each other.
"Indian rice is the most competitive in the global market, and competitors will find it tough to match Indian rates," said Chandrasekaran.
Long-Term Market Shifts
On the demand side, importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia imposed bans on imports to encourage domestic production. Nigeria has not officially allowed imports of finished rice for nearly a decade. Jain explained, "When India reopened exports in late 2024, regaining buyers has proved extremely difficult." The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), in its Rice Price Update, said trading activity kept Indian prices steady to mildly lower, with a "decisively bearish" turn in India's parboiled market—an indicator of problems with Africa, the largest purchaser of parboiled rice.
Outlook
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its Grain: World Markets and Trade report, stated that India will continue to account for 40% of global trade, with the Philippines, Vietnam, and China remaining the top importers. For the 2026-27 season (September 2026–August 2027), India is projected to export 24.5 million tonnes of basmati and non-basmati rice. The Iran war was also mentioned as compounding the situation, though details were not expanded.
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