Container shipping is on track to normalise Red Sea and Suez Canal transits by the end of 2026 as major carriers restore routings, according to Splash247 — but the security crisis that triggered the disruption more than 1,000 days ago remains unresolved.
More than 1,000 days after the Galaxy Leader seizure ushered in shipping's Red Sea crisis, the container sector could be approaching something resembling normality on the Suez route before the end of the year, Splash247 reported. Analyst Lars Jensen argued that the pace at which carriers are restoring services makes a normalisation by the end of 2026 increasingly plausible.
Carriers restore Suez routings
Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) officially restored Suez routings on four major east-west services this week, according to Splash247: Jade and Tiger between Asia and the Mediterranean, Albatros between Asia and northern Europe, and Himalaya linking India and the Mediterranean.
| Service | Route |
|---|---|
| Jade | Asia – Mediterranean |
| Tiger | Asia – Mediterranean |
| Albatros | Asia – northern Europe |
| Himalaya | India – Mediterranean |
Alphaliner noted that MSC has already tested the route with megamax tonnage, including the 20,300 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) MSC Oliver and 23,782 TEU MSC Amelia, both making dark passages with AIS (Automatic Identification System) switched off through the Red Sea. Switching the four services back through Suez allows MSC to operate each rotation with two fewer ships, potentially releasing eight vessels back into a market where available tonnage remains extremely tight, Splash247 reported.
Maersk and CMA CGM accelerate returns
Linerlytica reports Maersk has also accelerated its return, completing 11 Bab el-Mandeb transits in both directions last week, behind CMA CGM's 15. Maersk says more than 30% of its previously Cape of Good Hope-routed volumes have already returned to Suez.
Canal traffic climbs but stays below pre-crisis
The Suez Canal Authority is already seeing the impact, reporting a 'considerable increase' in Maersk containership passages. Overall canal traffic recently reached its highest level since January 2024, although volumes remain 41% below pre-crisis levels.
Analyst sees end-2026 normalisation
Jensen noted that MSC, Maersk and parts of the Ocean Alliance are now back on the route, while Premier Alliance cargo is also effectively returning through slots on MSC's Tiger service. In a LinkedIn post, Jensen wrote:
At this pace it might be reasonable to see a normalization by end-2026.
He cautioned, according to Splash247, that some services could continue routing around Africa as carriers seek to absorb excess capacity released by shorter voyages.
Security risk persists
The extraordinary part is that the security crisis itself is far from resolved, Splash247 reported. Houthi attacks against Saudi-linked shipping continue, with the Saudi very large crude carrier (VLCC) Amzan struck off Yanbu this week, while war-risk insurance costs for Red Sea voyages have risen sharply again.
Operational implications
For freight forwarders, shippers and 3PL operators, the timetable for Suez normalisation is now concrete enough to factor into routing and inventory decisions, according to Splash247's reporting. MSC's four restored services free up to eight vessels into a market where available tonnage remains extremely tight, which could ease capacity pressure on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean lanes. However, Jensen cautioned that some services could continue routing around Africa as carriers seek to absorb excess capacity released by shorter voyages, and with the Houthi threat still active and war-risk insurance costs rising, carriers may keep contingency routing in place even as Suez transits recover.
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