Truckload linehaul rates continued to climb in June, but the long-awaited volume recovery is stalling as inflation and high fuel costs weigh on demand, according to the latest Cass Freight Index report from Cass Information Systems (NASDAQ: CASS).
Freight Volumes Slide Deeper
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.1% year over year in June, a sharp acceleration from May's 1.2% decline. On a month-over-month basis, shipments dropped 3.1% from May to June (down 2.9% seasonally adjusted). The report noted that the dataset is trucking-centric and "bucked the favorable demand trends" that J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) reported recently. J.B. Hunt's strength likely reflects market share gains and heightened interest in intermodal and dedicated services as shippers seek reliable capacity amid the Supreme Court's ruling widening broker liability, the report said.
"To some extent, volumes are still down because capacity is declining, and the glimmers of strong demand visible with double-digit growth in the relatively small domestic intermodal sector are not moving the needle in this more trucking-based index," the report stated. The May edition had projected volumes would rise 1.8% y/y in the second half of 2026, but the June report did not provide an updated outlook.
| June 2026 | y/y | 2-year | m/m | m/m (SA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipments | -4.1% | -6.4% | -3.1% | -2.9% |
| Expenditures | 11.2% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| TL Linehaul Index | 5.5% | 7.6% | -0.9% | NM |
Expenditures Surge on Higher Rates and Fuel
Cass' expenditures index — measuring total freight spend including fuel — surged 11.2% year over year in June. The report attributed the increase to higher freight rates and a 40% year-over-year rise in retail diesel fuel prices.
TL Linehaul Rates Extend Winning Streak to 18 Months
The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, rose 5.5% year over year in June. On a two-year-stacked comparison, rates were up 7.6% in June. The index has now posted year-over-year gains for 18 consecutive months. However, June's reading came in 0.9% below May's level. The report described this as a "temporary pause" as many shipper bids took effect July 1.
Outlook and Implications for Operators
The report acknowledged that the volume recovery appears delayed due to a "hopefully brief bout of inflation" and the razor-thin U.S. savings rate. Still, it noted that fuel prices are falling fast, inventories are tight, tariffs are down, and the U.S. dollar is soft, keeping a demand recovery possible later this year. "But for now, tighter supply remains the main reason for accelerating rates," the report concluded.
For logistics managers and freight forwarders, the Cass data signals that truckload capacity continues to tighten, driving up contract and spot rates. Shippers should expect further rate increases through bid season, while carriers benefit from pricing power. The divergence between truckload and intermodal trends suggests that shippers are increasingly turning to rail intermodal for cost savings and reliability, a dynamic that could reshape modal mix in the months ahead.
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