LTL all-in revenue per hundredweight has surged to $46.13 on SONAR's LTL.USA index, well above the six-month average of $41.31 and at its highest level in the five-year window tracked by the chart. The headline numbers suggest carriers are enjoying their best pricing moment since the post-COVID freight boom, but a closer look reveals the increase is almost entirely a fuel surcharge story.
The Fuel Surcharge Driver
When diesel averaged $3.50 per gallon in May 2025, the fuel surcharge — calculated using a generalized table that starts at 0.5% when the DOE weekly figure is at $1.20 and increases 0.5% for every $0.06 increment — was estimated at 19.5% of the base linehaul rate. By May 2026, diesel had surged to $5.60 per gallon, a 60% increase, pushing the surcharge to 37.0% . On a median LTL shipment, that swing alone added more than $5.80 per hundredweight to the invoice, more than accounting for the entire year-over-year all-in rate increase.
| Metric | May 2025 | May 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel price per gallon | $3.50 | $5.60 | +60% |
| Fuel surcharge (% of base rate) | 19.5% | 37.0% | +17.5 pp |
| Fuel surcharge impact (per cwt) | — | +$5.80 | — |
The all-in rate is at a multi-year high, the underlying rate is not, and the gap between them is almost entirely diesel.
Base Rate Reality
Strip the fuel surcharge out and the picture inverts. SONAR's LCWT1.USA index, which tracks initial contract base rates on paid invoices with fuel excluded, shows base rates flat to slightly negative year-over-year. Carriers have actually been cutting rates across nearly every freight class — Class 50 (dense, efficient freight) by as much as 21% — to compete for volume in what has been, beneath the fuel noise, a buyer's market at the base rate level.
The Yellow Exit Set the Floor
The divergence between all-in and base rates did not begin in a vacuum. The Yellow liquidation in mid-2023 removed roughly 10% of U.S. LTL capacity overnight. That event was widely expected to produce an immediate repricing of the market. Instead, it produced a floor. The remaining carriers — Old Dominion, Saia, XPO, ArcBest, Estes and others — absorbed the displaced volume with unusual discipline, holding GRI cadence steady and preventing the kind of base rate collapse that hit the truckload market during the same period.
In the months immediately following the Yellow exit, LTL.USA held its level through late 2023 and into 2024 even as the freight recession continued — a notable divergence from the deep trough truckload rates were experiencing. The Yellow exit did not ignite an LTL pricing surge. What it did was ensure there was a base from which to launch one, once the broader freight cycle turned.
The Truckload Recovery Is the Signal
The orange line on the chart — van contract rates per mile (VCRPM1.USA) — complicates the LTL story, but not in the way it might first appear. Van contract rates fell from a peak above $2.90 per mile in mid-2022 all the way to roughly $2.24 per mile at the trough, a decline of more than 20% over nearly three years. The recovery off that floor has now retraced approximately half of the decline, climbing back to $2.51 per mile and still trending upward over the past eight months.
That recovery is not a number failing to confirm the LTL rally. It is a number setting up the next leg of it. When truckload rates finally hardened, the structural capacity discipline left by Yellow combined with improving demand gave LTL carriers the leverage to push base rates higher — but so far, that leverage has not been exercised. The fuel surcharge remains the entire story for now. For importers and exporters moving LTL freight, the key takeaway is that all-in rates will remain elevated as long as diesel stays high, but negotiators can push back on base rates, where competitive pressure is intense. The next milestone to watch is whether the truckload recovery broadens into sustained base rate gains for LTL carriers, which would signal a true cycle turn for shippers.
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