Maersk has abandoned its long-standing containership capacity ceiling, with its operated fleet now above 4.7m teu and CEO Vincent Clerc signalling renewed fleet growth, according to Splash247.
For most of the 2020s, the Danish carrier insisted its fleet would remain broadly within a 4m to 4.4m teu band, with newbuildings principally replacing older tonnage rather than adding capacity. That discipline has already started to disappear, as Maersk's operated fleet now stands above 4.7m teu, comfortably beyond its former ceiling. Meanwhile, CMA CGM is closing in rapidly on second place in the global liner rankings and has a substantially larger orderbook, the shipping news site reported.
Capacity ceiling abandoned
Comments accompanying Maersk's second-quarter results last week suggest Clerc is ready to respond. According to Splash247, the company told investors it will "ensure that we have the capacity to grow," having reached the limits of what can be extracted from its current fleet.
Analysts at Linerlytica reckon this could herald a new ordering phase. The consultancy noted that Maersk's annualised fleet growth since 2018 has been just 2%, compared with 11.7% among key rivals. Eight years of restraint have left Maersk needing additional tonnage at precisely the moment the global containership orderbook has surged to fresh records, Linerlytica argued.
Drewry managing director Philip Damas offered a more cautious read. He told Splash that Maersk is likely to pursue two objectives: replacing ageing vessels, partly to meet tightening environmental requirements, and adding more ships suited to fast-growing intra-regional trades. Drewry counts 46 Maersk ships of 15,000 teu or above on order, but only seven vessels of 6,000 teu or below.
"Not ordering excessive capacity in recent years, which most other large carriers did, will expose Maersk to a lower risk of overcapacity in late 2027-2029," said Philip Damas.
Damas added that ordering now would mean paying significantly higher prices. He suggested Maersk could instead exploit the next downturn by buying large containerships cheaply from owners caught with too much capacity.
Key figures from the source
- Maersk's operated fleet: above 4.7m teu, versus a former ceiling of 4m–4.4m teu.
- Annualised fleet growth since 2018: 2% for Maersk, 11.7% for key rivals (Linerlytica).
- Drewry counts 46 Maersk ships of 15,000+ teu on order, and only seven of 6,000 teu or below.
- Maersk's existing orderbook equals 25% of current capacity, according to CTI Consultancy's Andy Lane.
Analysts split on order strategy
| Analyst | Firm | View |
|---|---|---|
| Linerlytica | — | New ordering phase likely; Maersk's 2% annualised fleet growth since 2018 trails rivals' 11.7% |
| Philip Damas | Drewry | Replace ageing vessels, add intra-regional ships; weigh higher newbuild prices vs buying cheap in next downturn |
| Andy Lane | CTI Consultancy | Orderbook already 25% of current capacity; industry faces overcapacity in 2027-2028 |
| Lars Jensen | Vespucci Maritime | Abandoning the ceiling may mean more chartering, not necessarily a large ordering spree |
| Jan Tiedemann | Alphaliner | Maersk got its timing wrong; needs one or two dozen more newbuilds; possible LNG dual-fuel order later this year |
Lane warned that "with an additional 25% of the existing global fleet hitting the water in 2027-2028, with organic growth of 5% demand per year, which in terms of teu*nautical miles will effectively be less with more Suez services, the industry is not heading to a happy place." Jensen similarly cautioned that abandoning the ceiling need not automatically translate into a massive ordering programme. "It might not necessarily entail a large ordering spree, but could also indicate a more aggressive approach to taking vessels in on charter," he said.
Chartering and fleet renewal
Alphaliner analyst Jan Tiedemann said Maersk has been chartering "very aggressively" recently, something he sees as evidence the carrier misjudged the newbuilding market several years ago. "I would say that Maersk has got its timing wrong," Tiedemann said. "They have ordered large newbuildings too late and too few, and they need one or two dozens more."
Tiedemann also pointed to fleet renewal. Maersk was an early mover into ultra-large ships, meaning some of its biggest vessels will be among the first of their generation requiring replacement in the early 2030s. The Alphaliner analyst said he expects a possible order for large LNG dual-fuel ships later this year, potentially for 2029-31 delivery.
Implications for operators
For shippers and forwarders, the immediate signal from Maersk's investor comments is that the carrier intends to expand its capacity, according to Splash247. The strategy shift comes as analysts at Linerlytica point to eight years of restraint leaving Maersk needing additional tonnage, while Damas highlights the risk that ordering now would mean paying significantly higher prices. Lane warned that with an additional 25% of the existing global fleet entering service in 2027-2028, the industry "is not heading to a happy place."
Tiedemann's observation that Maersk has been chartering "very aggressively" indicates the carrier is already seeking flexible tonnage, which could affect the charter market. Maersk officials had yet to reply to questions sent by Splash earlier today.
Watch list
- Possible Alphaliner-forecast order for large LNG dual-fuel ships later this year, with delivery in 2029-31.
- Maersk's response to Splash's queries, which had not arrived at the time of publication.
- The global containership orderbook, which Linerlytica said has surged to fresh records.
- Whether Maersk opts for newbuildings or waits to buy cheap secondhand ships in the next downturn, per Damas.
Sources:
