Truck transportation employment rose by just 100 jobs from June to July, while warehouse employment fell by 9,500 — a divergence that points to softer warehouse labor demand even as carriers hold capacity steady, according to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The BLS report showed truck transportation employment effectively flat, but the headline number masks a downward revision of 1,500 jobs from the initial June report and a further 200-job cut to May, the agency said. As a result, July's truck transportation job count of 1,465,100 was exactly the same as February's figure, according to BLS data reported by FreightWaves.
Trucking employment holds flat
The modest gain in trucking jobs comes as carriers face a "restrictive regulatory environment," according to Mazan Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight. Danaf said carriers are "actively seeking to expand fleets to capitalize on rising spot rates and strengthening demand," though doing so remains difficult. He also pointed to positive subsector data, "with long-distance truckload employment growing for four consecutive months through June."
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, offered a different read. He said employment holding relatively steady even as rates rise "highlights carrier priorities for replacing aging equipment and focusing on necessary driver wage increases, instead of additional growth at this point in the cycle."
Warehouse jobs post sharp drop
Warehouse employment fell by 9,500 jobs to 1,834,600 in July, the BLS reported. The one-month decline was significant but not the largest of the past year: September and October 2025 each saw bigger drops of 16,000 and 13,500 jobs, respectively. Year over year, warehouse jobs are down 34,700, a 1.8% decrease, according to the BLS.
Independent economist Aaron Terrazas noted that warehouse job figures for May and June were also revised downward. While July's 1.834 million jobs is still above the first three months of the year, "revisions have erased any sense of a summer rebound in warehousing employment," Terrazas told FreightWaves.
Couriers and rail move in opposite directions
Courier employment rose to 1,098,000 jobs from 1,083,100 in June, the BLS reported. Terrazas cautioned that the apparent improvement is partly an artifact of a sharp downward revision to June's courier figure, which the BLS now puts at 1.083 million — well below the original report of 1,097,200.
Rail employment, by contrast, dipped by 400 jobs to 149,300 in July, and revisions cut both May and June rail figures. Rail jobs are now 5,100 below their level a year ago, a 3.2% decline, according to the BLS.
Earnings and the capacity debate
Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory truck transportation employees edged up to $32.35 in June — the most recent month available, due to a one-month reporting lag — but remained below April's $32.38, the BLS said.
Danaf noted that truck transportation employment is now 3.2% below its 10-year average, "suggesting that a full capacity recovery remains a long-term prospect." Spencer pointed to persistent constraints: "Capacity remains constrained as carriers struggle with high fuel prices and a shifting regulatory landscape."
Here's a snapshot of the key job numbers from the July report:
| Segment | July jobs | Change vs. June | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truck transportation | 1,465,100 | +100 | n/a |
| Warehouse and storage | 1,834,600 | -9,500 | -34,700 (-1.8%) |
| Couriers | 1,098,000 | +14,900 | n/a |
| Rail | 149,300 | -400 | -5,100 (-3.2%) |
Watch list
Spencer flagged several factors that could further restrict truck capacity in the coming months: continued regulatory enforcement, the recent Supreme Court ruling on broker liability, insurance costs and access, and safety ratings. Danaf's longer-range view suggests the labor market may not return to its 10-year average anytime soon, which could keep pressure on spot rates and shipper pricing.
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