India could save nearly Rs 1 lakh crore in oil imports if electric vehicles reach a 20% market share by 2030, according to a recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI). The report projects that 35 lakh additional EVs will replace petrol vehicles between 2027 and 2030, driven by rising consumer adoption and geopolitical factors.
Adoption Trajectory
SBI reported that EV adoption has increased considerably since the onset of the Middle East conflict in February 2026, which coincided with a sharp jump in EV registrations. Average monthly EV registrations climbed to 2.3 lakh during March-June 2026, up from an average of 1.3 lakh in 2025 — an increase of around one lakh vehicles every month. Based on this trajectory, the report expects overall EV registrations to cross 25 lakh in 2026.
"Our estimate indicates that during the four-year period of 2027-2030, 35 lakh more EVs are expected to replace the petrol vehicles.... EV vehicles have now reached more than an 8 per cent share in 2026. A 20 per cent share by 2030 could save Rs 1 lakh crore of the import bill," the report stated.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current EV market share (2026) | 8% |
| Target market share by 2030 | 20% |
| Additional EVs replacing petrol (2027-2030) | 35 lakh |
| Potential oil import savings | Rs 1 lakh crore |
| Avg. monthly EV registrations (2025) | 1.3 lakh |
| Avg. monthly EV registrations (Mar-Jun 2026) | 2.3 lakh |
| Projected total EV registrations 2026 | 25 lakh+ |
Charging Infrastructure Gaps
While demand is rising, SBI stressed that charging infrastructure needs to keep pace with adoption. Fast chargers currently account for only about 30% of the country's charging network, prompting the report to call for a wider rollout of fast-charging facilities. India currently has 29,151 charging stations, with Karnataka and Maharashtra together accounting for 35% of the total. The report also noted disparities across states: in some states, a single charging station caters to more than 200 EVs, while in others the figure is close to 50 vehicles per station.
| Charging Infrastructure Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Total charging stations in India | 29,151 |
| Share of Karnataka & Maharashtra | 35% |
| Fast charger share nationwide | 30% |
| States with fast charger share >50% | Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Goa |
Policy Roadmap
To strengthen the EV ecosystem, SBI recommended setting up an EV Credit Guarantee Fund, providing concessional land for public charging stations, expanding government procurement of electric vehicles, and introducing a dedicated green mobility category. The report also called for a long-term EV roadmap spanning 10-15 years, with clearly defined goals for vehicle segments, charging infrastructure, regulatory policies, and battery manufacturing.
Regional Disparities
SBI highlighted that Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Goa have a relatively stronger fast-charging network, with fast chargers making up more than half of their total charging stations. Separately, the Delhi government plans to install 32,000 charging points over the next four years under its new EV policy.
The report concluded that the long-term success of electric vehicles in India will depend largely on ensuring adequate charging infrastructure is available across the country.
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