A 26% drop in reported cargo theft incidents did not reduce the financial damage, according to Verisk CargoNet's second-quarter analysis. The freight intelligence network documented 677 incidents across the United States and Canada — 26% below Q2 2025 and 14% below the prior quarter — yet estimated losses climbed to $304.6 million, more than double the $135.7 million recorded a year earlier. The average reported commodity value reached $564,009, inflated by several multimillion-dollar thefts involving metals and enterprise technology.
The numbers behind the drop
CargoNet's quarterly data paints a split picture: fewer events, but higher severity. According to the analysis, physical thefts involving loaded equipment and non-delivery schemes declined from 488 events in Q2 2025 to 378 this year. Fictitious pickup incidents moved far less, falling from 165 to 158. Business email compromise and shipment misdirection activity stayed steady, with compromised accounts exposing shipment details, contact directories and transportation-management tools.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported incidents | 677 | — | -26% from Q2 2025; -14% from Q1 2026 |
| Estimated losses | $304.6M | $135.7M | More than doubled |
| Average commodity value | $564,009 | — | — |
| Physical thefts | 378 | 488 | Down |
| Fictitious pickups | 158 | 165 | Slight decline |
| Metal thefts | 80 | 54 | Up |
| Seafood thefts | +11 events | — | Increase |
Keith Lewis, Verisk CargoNet's vice president of operations, framed the trend in stark terms:
"Lower incident volume should not be mistaken for lower risk. The groups driving the largest losses are not necessarily trying to steal more freight; they are trying to identify the right shipment."
Lewis pointed to metals and enterprise technology as areas attracting organized theft groups because those shipments offer major value and established resale opportunities.
One quarter does not establish a trend
Scott Cornell, EVP, Crime and Theft Specialist at SPG Cargo & Logistics and chair of TAPA Americas, discussed the results during a recent FreightWaves interview. He described the decrease as welcome news after years of elevated theft activity, but urged the industry to avoid treating one quarter as proof of a broader shift. "It's not going to be a trend until we see it for maybe two or three quarters consecutively," Cornell said.
Cornell noted that cargo theft numbers have historically moved up and down, and he credited recent law-enforcement arrests as a possible contributor to the quarterly decrease. Those efforts included operations in New York, New Jersey, California and Canada, along with FBI and Homeland Security cases. Cornell called the results from law enforcement and private-sector cooperation encouraging.
Metals and technology drive severity
Metal theft increased from 54 incidents in Q2 2025 to 80 this year, according to CargoNet. Copper remained the most frequently targeted metal, while aluminum, nickel, tungsten and other specialized materials also drew increased attention. Cornell noted that CargoNet's numbers placed metals second among commodity categories, behind food and beverage.
"Copper has been number one for two years now," Cornell said. "That's the longest stretch I've ever seen on copper." He added that companies moving metals need to slow down and place stronger controls around those shipments, describing targeting as a question of when, not whether, for many metal loads.
CargoNet also identified continued targeting of enterprise computer equipment, networking components and cryptocurrency mining hardware, loads that can carry multimillion-dollar values while moving as conventional dry freight. Food and beverage thefts declined overall, including mixed grocery products and alcoholic beverages, while seafood thefts moved in the opposite direction, increasing by 11 events.
What this means for logistics and procurement teams
For chief supply chain officers and procurement directors, the quarter's data argues for re-examining how high-value, high-resale shipments are routed and controlled. The low incident count masks a higher average loss per event: $564,009 versus a year-ago total loss of $135.7 million across more incidents. Metals shippers in particular face a risk environment where Cornell says targeting is a matter of when, not whether — and the response he recommends is slower, more controlled movement of those loads. Technology shippers, meanwhile, should treat enterprise computing and crypto mining hardware as priority assets, given the multimillion-dollar thefts CargoNet documented. The steady presence of business email compromise and shipment misdirection also means logistics teams should audit access to transportation-management tools and shipment detail repositories that criminals exploit to impersonate trusted parties. One quarter of decline, as Cornell stressed, is not a trend — and the $304.6 million loss figure is the financial reality procurement teams must plan around.
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