Approximately 30 percent of trading volume on Polymarket originates from the United States, according to a new study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane — a striking figure given that US users are legally barred from using the crypto-based prediction market platform. The study, commissioned and funded by the Coalition for Prediction Markets (a lobbying group whose members include Kalshi, Coinbase, and Crypto.com, but not Polymarket itself), estimated that Americans funneled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and the end of April 2026.
Study Methodology and Limitations
Crane, who also serves on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, developed a methodology to estimate US trading activity without directly observing geography, since US traders often use virtual private networks (VPNs) to disguise their locations (Polymarket's terms of service prohibit VPN use). The study assumed that US traders exhibit distinct behaviors — for example, trading during US time zones and showing higher interest in US-centric markets such as American elections and sporting events. For Polymarket's sports vertical, the study estimated that US-based traders accounted for roughly half of the activity.
Charles Martineau, associate professor of finance at the University of Toronto Scarborough and an independent researcher of Polymarket trading behavior, noted that while the estimate is imprecise, "it provides a reasonable estimate of the fraction of the volume attributable to offshore trading." He added that "using these indirect proxies is common in finance research."
Regulatory Background
Polymarket's primary crypto-based platform has been banned in the US since 2022, after federal regulators determined it had been operating as an unregistered derivatives trading platform. However, since December 2025, Polymarket has operated a separate, licensed US mobile app called Polymarket US — but its trading volume is significantly smaller. According to a Pew Research report, Polymarket US's April 2026 volume was approximately $1.6 billion, while the primary offshore platform hit around $9 billion in the same month, making it by far the larger marketplace.
The CFTC does not normally have authority over offshore prediction markets, but agency chairman Michael Selig told WIRED in May 2026 that he is willing to use extraterritorial jurisdiction to pursue bad actors on a case-by-case basis. Polymarket declined to comment on the study.
Industry and Lobbying Context
The study was funded by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a lobbying group that advocates on behalf of the industry. Besides Kalshi, Coinbase, and Crypto.com, the coalition includes major prediction market players, though Polymarket itself is not a member. Crane maintained editorial control over the study, according to the report.
The findings come as prediction markets gain mainstream traction: Polymarket has partnered with US-based media companies like Substack and Dow Jones, as well as American sports leagues including Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League.
What to Watch
The study provides the first major public estimate of illicit US participation on Polymarket, highlighting enforcement challenges for regulators. The CFTC's stated willingness to use extraterritorial jurisdiction signals potential future actions against bad actors, though no specific cases have been announced. Industry observers will watch for any regulatory responses targeting the use of VPNs to bypass platform bans, as well as potential licensing expansions for Polymarket US to capture some of the offshore volume.
