Indian equity markets are set for a week driven by domestic inflation data, the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, crude oil price trends, and developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement, analysts said.
Key Triggers: Inflation and Fed Verdict
On the domestic front, investors will monitor the release of May Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, according to Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd. Globally, the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be the most significant event, he added.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, is another major event on investors’ radar. “Market participants will closely monitor the Fed's commentary, inflation outlook, economic growth projections, and indications regarding future rate cuts,” Gour said, as quoted by PTI. He added that the progress of the monsoon season and inflation trends will remain important domestic indicators.
US-Iran Deal in Focus
US President Donald Trump has said that a deal to end the war with Iran would be signed on Sunday and that the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” immediately afterwards. At the same time, Trump kept open the possibility of fresh attacks if the agreement does not materialise as expected.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the proposed US-Iran agreement. Any progress on the deal could have implications for global oil prices and risk sentiment across markets, he said, as quoted by PTI.
Foreign Outflows Remain a Concern
Foreign investors continued to pare exposure to Indian equities, selling shares worth more than Rs 62,853 crore during the first half of June. According to National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) data, total Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows from Indian equities have reached Rs 2.87 lakh crore so far in 2026, exceeding the Rs 1.66 lakh crore withdrawn during the whole of 2025.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| FPI outflows in first half of June 2026 | More than Rs 62,853 crore |
| Total FPI outflows in 2026 (till mid-June) | Rs 2.87 lakh crore |
| Total FPI outflows in 2025 | Rs 1.66 lakh crore |
Crude Oil Trends Crucial for India
Analysts said the recent correction in crude oil prices, following expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement, could support market sentiment in India. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, commented: “Recent geopolitical developments, which everyone expects to lead to a peace deal between the US and Iran, have led to a sharp correction in the price of Brent crude. For a big oil importer like India, this is a huge positive.”
Market Performance
The outlook comes after a strong week for domestic equities. The BSE Sensex gained 1,284.61 points, or 1.73%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 256.2 points, or 1%, last week. Investors will now watch whether the improving crude oil outlook and potential US-Iran deal can sustain the momentum amid persistent foreign outflows and global monetary policy uncertainty.
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